Mortgage Rate Trend Index Down: Sept. 27, 2017
Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?
Robert A. Brusca
Chief Economist, Facts and Opinions Economics, NY, NY
Rates lower ahead.
Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
The daily stochastic tech is about to upcross to bullish (higher prices, lower yields and rates) but the weekly remains bearish mitigating gains and, frankly, making my call 50% technical and 50% hopeful. Most importantly the monthly is ending its prolonged bear cycle calling for lower yields despite whatever is on the minds of Fed members.
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland
Treasury yields and mortgage rates are heading higher with President Donald Trump's announcement that his administration will be unveiling their tax cut plan. Markets think this will stimulate the economy and be inflationary, hence the reason for the increase in rates. But this still has to be passed, and tax reform has not been completed since 1986. I think once the plan is finally revealed and markets access how hard passing this will be, given the struggle repealing Obamacare, that rates will drop. Look for slightly better rates in the week ahead.
Former Dallas Fed chief economist, founding director of SMU's O'Neil Center for Global Markets & Freedom
In today’s highly globalized and interconnected world economy, U.S. inflation depends not just on U.S. money and GDP growth but also on foreign GDP growth, which is much faster than ours. The Fed is judging what U.S. inflation should be just on the basis of U.S. money growth and U.S. GDP growth, thus ignoring the ability of fast foreign GDP growth to lower our inflation. The bottom line…low U.S. inflation and the Fed’s announcement that they may have to postpone future rate hikes should, in concert, act to lower rates slightly in the present.
Senior loan officer, AMC Lending Group, Irvine, California
Very interest week on the 10-year yield, we are really only 2 basis points higher than last week today. However, yields were retracting lower up until the last 24 hours. Wednesday pricing on 10's 2.29%. Key battle right now in the bonds market channel now is 2.04% - 2.30%, if yields break higher from here look for 2.44% to be hit quickly, but if we hold here, yields have room to go lower.