Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for July 23 - 29, 2026

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgages rates are bouncing higher, driven by higher oil prices as a result of the re-escalation of the war in Iran. The ongoing conflict has oil prices rising [to] about $85 a barrel, which threatens to reignite broader economic inflation. Top that off with the expectation that the Fed will hold rates steady next week and remain hawkish in their bias, pushing bond yields higher and mortgage rates as well.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

The underlying reality is that borrowing is outstripping the supply of lendable funds. We may be seeing a period of higher rates for most all lending.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

Looking at the last ten business days’ results for both the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year mortgage spread — the difference between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield — reveals that both measures are trending upward. Given that both are major predictors of mortgage rate trends … next week, we should see a rise in long-term mortgage rates.

Joel Naroff

President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA

Up, unless there is another magical temporary ceasefire followed by an agreement that ends the war, followed by all-out war, or whatever.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Up. Oil prices are spiking again due to the ongoing Iran war.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Higher. Despite some positive signs for the overall economy — improved inflation and continued economic growth being notable factors — there are also some interest-rate-specific factors that have cast a pall over mortgage markets. Specifically, oil prices have risen and remained elevated, and the Federal Reserve has become more cautious, leading to expectations of a rate hike later in the year. Coupled with rising 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, I expect all of this to translate into higher mortgage rates in the short term.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I think we will see slight moderation of rates over the next week.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

The rates RSVP’d no. Here’s my real read: Rates aren’t moving on fundamentals right now; they’re moving on geopolitics, and that’s a much shakier floor to stand on. If the ceasefire holds together even loosely, I’d expect some of this upward pressure to ease. If it doesn’t, don’t be shocked if September starts looking less like a ‘hold’ and more like a live meeting. Prediction for week ahead: no change.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I believe interest rates will remain steady. While there is always the potential for short-term volatility, I do not see enough economic momentum to push rates meaningfully higher or lower over the next several days. The market is still processing a combination of encouraging and cautious signals. Inflation has continued to ease, which is a positive development, but policymakers and investors remain focused on ensuring those improvements are sustainable. Until there is stronger evidence that inflation is firmly under control, I expect the market to remain patient.