Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for May 21 - 27, 2026

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

The momentum is now to the upside for rates.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

Mortgage rates can be seen as a rate necessary to cover a general baseline level of risk, plus the risk of holding a mortgage. For long-term mortgage rates, we really just need to look for patterns in the yield on 10-year Treasurys and add a spread for the general risk of holding a mortgage. In the last 30 days, the spread to cover the risk of holding a mortgage (though slightly elevated on average) is trending downward. Unfortunately, the yield on 10-year Treasurys has been trending upward. The downward movement in the spread is less than the upward movement in 10-year yields, implying mortgage rates should increase next week.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

My call for the week ahead: Mortgage rates still have a slight upward bias, and I would expect a choppy, headline-driven market rather than a clean move lower. Inflation is still not fully behaving, and global tension continues to keep oil and bond markets on edge. That kind of uncertainty tends to keep pressure on rates, even when there are brief moments of relief. Bottom line: I would not count on a meaningful drop just yet. Any improvement could be short-lived unless we see calmer global conditions and clearer signs that inflation is cooling.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Up. Transitory inflation is rearing its ugly head.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Since the beginning of March, rates have been taken to the woodshed with 10-year Treasurys up 70 basis points, hitting 4.67% Wednesday morning. Mortgage rates have been a little more contained, with a rise of less than 40 basis points, according to Freddie Mac as of May 14th. The reason is pretty simple: Bonds hate inflation and react[ed] negatively to [the] very hot numbers that [the Consumer Price Index] and [the Producer Price Index] delivered last week. We know the culprit currently is a result of energy prices and the conflict in Iran. It's hard to say when that situation will resolve itself, but until then, look for rates to be higher more than lower.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates will be slightly lower this week, as oil prices drop and the 10-year bond yield has followed along. Hopes for successful negotiations with Iran have spurred the rally, and let’s pray that the war ends, oil prices continue to retreat, inflation calms down and mortgage rates can start to head back to where they were at the end of February.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go down. Iran’s rumor mill keeps pushing rates up and down. With the Federal Reserve frozen by near-term inflation and growth dragging, when a deal happens, expect the 10-year yield and mortgage rates to drop.

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Greenwood Village , CO

Down slightly, but not holding my breath. Mortgage rates hit 6.75% yesterday, the highest since July 2025 and three-quarters of a point higher than before the Iran War began, and [they] are retreating slightly today on renewed hopes of a peace agreement. The bond market is whipsawing on every headline, and even the analytical community can't fully explain Tuesday's bond sell-off, which tells you everything about how headline-driven and fragile this market is right now. Until there is a verified peace treaty and oil prices respond in a sustained way, any dip in rates is a pause, not a trend.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I expect rates to improve slightly from their recent highs, given the upcoming holiday weekend and no meaningful economic data.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I expect mortgage interest rates to remain relatively stable for the time being. At present, there does not appear to be a major catalyst that would push rates significantly higher or lower in the near term. The market continues to balance ongoing inflation concerns with Federal Reserve policy and Treasury yield movements. While inflation has cooled, it has not yet reached a level that would prompt the Fed to aggressively cut rates, maintaining some pressure on mortgage pricing. Furthermore, economic data remains mixed, and investors seem to be waiting for clearer direction before making significant moves.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Unchanged. Mortgage markets have absorbed the most recent economic data and the confirmation of a new Federal Reserve chair, and both mortgage rates and Treasury rates have risen to reflect new expectations. I expect rates to stabilize at the current level over the next week.