Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for June 15 - July 1, 2026

Mitch Ohlbaum

Mortgage Banker, Macoy Capital Partners , Los Angeles , CA

We have seen the 10-year drifting down since hitting a high of 4.660% back in mid-May, and we are currently at 4.495%. Assuming things do not heat up in the Middle East and economic numbers remain strong, we should see rates continue to fall over the coming months.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Now that oil is flowing again and dropped below $70 a barrel, bonds and mortgage-backed securities have responded nicely. Look for rates to continue a little lower in response.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Wall Street is nervous. We should see lower rates.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go down. Iran’s talk and skirmishes keep pushing rates up and down. The Federal Reserve is sidelined by near-term inflation and solid jobs. The risk of higher or lower rates leans towards lower mortgage rates.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

The events of last week relative to the Federal Reserve meeting show a significant impact on all interest-rate-sensitive markets. Absent new information, I expect that market participants will take some time to further revise and consider their expectations. I do not expect any big moves this week unless something unforeseen occurs.

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Greenwood Village , CO

Mortgage rates are holding steady with the 10-year Treasury continuing to bump against the same 4.42% ceiling it has faced since late May, keeping the 30-year fixed anchored around 6.6%. Next week brings jobs data, PCE and a short holiday week, but unless something surprises the market, rates are likely to hold this narrow pattern until there is greater confidence that the Iran peace treaty is real, signed and holding.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

New sheriff, same standoff. Kevin Warsh used his [Federal Open Market Committee] debut to hold the line and torch the dot plot — cuts are off the menu, and a hike is suddenly back on it. Markets heard ‘higher for longer,’ and the bond market doesn’t argue with the [Federal Reserve] in June. Here’s the twist: Rates actually eased a touch this week. With vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, oil slid to a four-month low and took some pressure off the 10-year, dragging the 30-year fixed back toward the mid-6s. Don’t get comfortable. Friday’s PCE is the whole ballgame, and it’s expected to run hot. Inflation’s already climbing, not cooling, and the Fed’s 2% target is in another ZIP code.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I expect rates to be relatively unchanged over the upcoming week, going into the Fourth of July weekend.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

As I look at the current economic environment, I don't see a compelling reason for rates to move significantly in either direction. The market has already priced in much of the recent economic data, and investors appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach as they assess inflation trends, labor market conditions and future Federal Reserve policy. In my view, we're currently in a market searching for clarity. Inflation has moderated from its peak, but it remains above the Fed's long-term target. At the same time, the economy continues to demonstrate resilience, which reduces the urgency for policymakers to aggressively lower rates. This tug-of-war between cooling inflation and steady economic growth is likely to keep mortgage rates within a fairly narrow range.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

For the last 10 business days, mortgage rates, spreads — [the] difference between mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields — and the yields on the 10-year Treasury have all remained quite stable. This implies little change is baked into the market for long-term mortgages. Thus, next week, we should anticipate no change in mortgage rates.