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Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged?
Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
 Alert
me when the RTI is updated
This
week (July 24 - July 30) the experts say: Mortgage rates still have a ways to go up.
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| July 17 - July 23 |
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This week, 70 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. The rest are evenly split among those who think rates will fall and those who believe will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Panel:
Up:
50% |
Down:
31% |
Unchanged:
19% |
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| Experts' comments and Bankrate
analysts |
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Experts' comments |
Panel |
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The
recent rally in stocks, drop in oil prices and
additional threats of inflation are drawing money
out of bonds. As bond prices decrease, mortgage
interest rates rise. We've seen this play out
over the last week.
David Kuiper, mortgage
planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
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up |
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As
discussed in past weeks, the bear market rally
has caused rapid deterioration in bond prices.
The President's anticipated signing of the GSE
bailout bill may temporarily buoy bond prices
and lower rates in the short term.
Dan Dowling, senior
mortgage adviser/president, United Mortgage Capital
Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla.
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up |
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Mortgage
bonds are sitting at the worst price levels of
2008, so as long as the economic news ahead isn't
too inflation-laden, bonds and home loan rates
should see some improvement from current levels.
Sue Woodard, loan
consultant, CTX Mortgage, Minneapolis
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down |
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Rates
have settled and will be looking at Fed action
for future direction. That will probably mean
rate hikes beginning as early as August to combat
inflation. Until that time, I seeing us remaining
unchanged.
Chris Sipe, loan
officer, America East Mortgage, Frederick, Md.
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unchanged |
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Rates
will spread over a large range, but the monthly
trend should be flat.
Dan Green, Mobium
Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
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unchanged |
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It is difficult to make just one prediction about
what rates will do 35 to 45 days from now. We
should see rates dip a bit just at or after the
end of this month and have a rally lasting as
much as a week. So my call for "lower" is for
the end of this month. After that one week break
we will give up the gains in Treasury prices.
Underlying all of this is the FHLMC/FNMA (Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae) situation
which overwhelms all else.
Dick Lepre, senior
loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San
Francisco
|
down |
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Rates in the past seven days have risen more than
35 basis points after taking more than 30 days
to decline as much. This example clearly depicts
a trend in the market that allows rates to increase
rapidly but is cautiously slow to bring rates
down. Regardless of your thoughts on the direction
of rates, recognize that when rates do increase
they will increase fast and when they decline,
it will take time. The new "covered bond" market
proposal may in fact bring rates down if legislation
can be adopted in a timely manner.
Cameron Findlay,
chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C.
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unchanged |
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Equity markets have improved, stocks have been trading higher and inflationary reports are putting a lot of pressure on the mortgage backed securities, which leads to an increase in rates.
Steve Levitt, vice
president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate,
Chicago
|
up |
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Rates will continue to get punished in the face
of inflationary news. The bright spot to be seen
from this is that we are approaching two year
interest rate highs that were unable to hold extended
firm ground from the beginning of June through
mid- to late July last year. Should we revisit
those levels, with good fortune; the window will
be as narrow as was seen last year. The best thing
that could occur would actually be for the Fed
to start hiking rates.
Jim Sahnger, Mortgage
Consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart,
Fla.
|
up |
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Bankrate's analysts |
Panel |
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Mortgage investors face the risks of higher inflation and rising defaults. Both of these problems put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Holden Lewis, senior
reporter, Bankrate.com
|
up |
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Inflation worries will persist. But now that rates have spiked higher, concerns about economic weakness will produce some dips in mortgage rates.
Greg McBride, senior
financial analyst, Bankrate.com
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down |
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About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
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This week: July 24 - July 30 
