| Mortgage rates up a
bit, snapping 6-week fall |
| By Holden
Lewis • Bankrate.com |
|
Long-term mortgage rates went up for the first time
in six weeks, but not by much.
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 1 basis
point to 6.49 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey
of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage
point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total
of 0.36 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage
index was 5.8 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.65 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage stepped up 1 basis point to 6.2
percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage fell 2 basis points to
6.22 percent.
This week's survey was conducted Tuesday, one day earlier than
usual, because Tropical Storm Ernesto threatened to disrupt communications
at Bankrate's Florida offices on Wednesday.
 |
Weekly national mortgage survey |
|
| This week's rate: |
6.49% |
6.20% |
6.22% |
| Change from last week: |
+0.01% |
+0.01% |
-0.02% |
| Monthly payment: |
$1,041.83 |
$1,410.26 |
$1,012.72 |
| Change from last week: |
+$1.09 |
+$0.90 |
-$2.14 |
Rates were at a near standstill because there wasn't
much economic news to move them in either direction. In large part,
bond markets are watching the Federal Reserve, trying to guess the
central bank's next move. And most bond traders believe the Fed
will remain on the sidelines at its next meeting, Sept. 20.
In a market commentary, Freddie Mac's chief economist, Frank Nothaft,
notes that the futures market forecasts a 10 percent chance of another
Fed rate hike in September and a little over a 40 percent chance
it will raise rates at all this year. "This perception takes
upward pressure off mortgage rates," he says.
Potential for excitement
The economic calendar promises a little more action later in the
week. Wednesday brings the Commerce Department's estimate of gross
domestic product in the second quarter. Friday, the economic calendar
holds an even bigger mover of interest rates: the employment report
for September.
Among economists surveyed by Briefing.com, the consensus is that
the employment report will show that 125,000 net jobs were created
in August. If that estimate is unduly optimistic, and it turns out
that fewer than 100,000 jobs were created in August, mortgage rates
are likely to fall. If the report says that nonfarm payrolls grew
by a lot more than the estimate -- 150,000 or more -- mortgage rates
are likely to rise.
The early signs point to a decline. The Conference Board's consumer
confidence index for August was much lower than forecast. It fell
to 99.6 from 107 in July; the economic pundits had expected a softer
decline to about 102 or 103.
This week's upward blip in the rate on the 30-year fixed was the
first rise since a 2-basis-point rise July 19. The rate on the 30-year
fixed mortgage -- still the most commonly held mortgage loan despite
the proliferation of exotic variants -- rate has fallen almost half
a point since June 28, when it climbed to 6.93 percent.
| 
