Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for September 10 - 16, 2026

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

We've all been trained to expect cuts. Throw that out. The 30-year fixed is at 6.74–6.78%, a one-year high, and markets are now pricing roughly 50-60% odds of a Fed hike Sept. 16 — not a cut. Why: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh came out of Jackson Hole hawkish on inflation, even as the White House pushes for cuts. The August [Consumer Price Index] print on September 11 decides it. Hot number, rates push toward 7%. Cool number, we ease back toward the low 6.7s. My take: Warsh doesn't blink. A new chair proving independence doesn't cave to pressure in his first year. Plan for rates to stay elevated through this meeting either way.

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Englewood , CO

The 10-year Treasury hit 4.83% Wednesday morning, its highest level since October 2023, with mortgage rates quickly approaching 7%. [T]he Iran conflict [has] escalated, sending Brent crude oil back above $100 a barrel and reigniting inflation fears ahead of Thursday's producer price index (PPI) and Friday's consumer price index (CPI) reports. [M]arkets are treating [these] as the deciding factor for a Fed hike at the Sept. 16-17 meeting. Adding to the concern, political signals out of Washington suggest additional military aggression against Iran is being held until after the midterms, which means the market has no clear timeline for this conflict to resolve and every reason to believe oil pressure on rates continues. Until the Strait of Hormuz is open and inflation data reflects it, rates have more room to move up than down.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

More [bad inflation] news coming this week.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Mortgage rates have jumped to a higher level over the past 10 days, mostly driven by stubborn inflation and uncertainty over the Fed's future rate decisions. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate seems to be moving higher as well, and I believe the mortgage rate trend will continue until we get more information from the Fed about the possibility of future rate cuts.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

Really no good news here. Both the risk of holding mortgages as an investment and 10-Year Treasury yields are noticeably increasing. This will result in higher long-term mortgage rates for next week.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Economic data continues to take a back seat to oil pressures stemming from the Iran conflict. Iran is retaliating over a number of issues, driving more frequent missile strikes — not only across the region but also against U.S. bases there and U.S. Navy ships. Each move from Iran draws a more forceful response from Washington, and collectively, those moves are pushing oil prices higher. That, in turn, puts added pressure on bonds and [mortgage-backed securities]. I don't see anything changing in the short term.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I expect mortgage interest rates to remain relatively unchanged this week, but the path may be somewhat bumpy. The market is caught between a stronger-than-expected labor market and renewed concerns about inflation, particularly as higher energy prices add another layer of uncertainty. Treasury yields remain elevated, which keeps upward pressure on mortgage rates, but I don't see enough momentum yet for a significant sustained move higher. At the same time, the market is becoming increasingly sensitive to each new piece of economic data as we move closer to the Federal Reserve's September meeting. My expectation is that we'll see some day-to-day volatility, but mortgage rates will ultimately remain within their current range and finish the week relatively close to where they started.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go nowhere. Every day of the war of attrition in Ukraine brings the end closer. Talks are happening. Every day, the U.S. inflicts pain on the Iranian terrorist regime while alternative oil transportation infrastructure develops, reducing vulnerability to [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] attacks. With hostilities meaning less to the markets, the recent rise in rates is limited.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Rates will stay flat until there are better signs that inflation is controlled. Then we will see lower rates.