Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for August 20 - 26, 2026

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Rates will continue to rise in the near future. The war with Iran has no end in sight, keeping oil and other energy prices high.

Joel Naroff

President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA

While the markets have just about given up reacting to every one of President Trump’s comments, the Strait of Whoever is still largely closed, and the margin of error in inventories is shrinking.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

U.S. Treasury rates have been inching higher over the last week, and I expect mortgage rates to follow. Compounding the issue are the persistent concerns about domestic inflation [as well as] the military conflict in the Middle East and the associated spikes in oil prices. While rates may stay flat over the next week, I believe the most likely scenario is a slight increase.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I expect rates to drift slightly lower over the next week, given [the] lack of economic data and [the] recently announced Treasury buybacks.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates are settling down a bit this week thanks to the Treasury Department’s announcement that [it] will “at least double” its purchase of bonds, particularly at the long end of the curve. Bond yields have dropped on the news, and mortgage rates followed suit. With oil prices still rising on the unresolved conflict in Iran, the additional bond purchases will act as an offset and hopefully keep yields and mortgage rates lower as we head into the fall season.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go down. The 10-year yield remains stuck between 4.80 and 4.20. With the Iran situation offering little economic hindrances, bond yields will fall. However, wild moves within the range remain likely.

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Englewood , CO

The 30-year fixed continues to sit between 6.59% and 6.75% this week, and with last week's wholesale inflation coming in flat, retail sales feeling the stress, and this morning's Treasury announcement doubling its bond buyback program from $2 to $4 billion, the market has a few modest tailwinds that are providing some stability without meaningfully moving the needle. The buyback is not quantitative easing and was never meant to be, but it does free up balance sheet space for bond market participants and adds a layer of liquidity support at a time when the market needs it. Rates will continue trading in a narrow range until the economy or the Iran conflict gives the bond market a reason to move decisively in either direction.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I expect mortgage interest rates to remain relatively unchanged this week. There are competing forces in the market right now: Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, while some of the latest economic and housing data point toward a softer environment. That combination makes it difficult for mortgage rates to establish a clear direction. I believe the market is looking for greater clarity on inflation and the Federal Reserve's next move before we see a meaningful shift. We could certainly experience some day-to-day volatility, particularly with geopolitical uncertainty affecting energy prices and the bond market, but I don't expect it to translate into a sustained move higher or lower this week.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

The effects from the earthquakes in Japan are mitigating and should lead to flat rates.