 Big
Easy blues: Can we ever go home again?
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 Dear
Steve,
From a homeowner's point of view, do you think New Orleans will
be worth returning to after the Hurricane Katrina cleanup? I have
temporarily relocated to Texas, but I know my 100-year-old, wood-frame
home there was, at least, partially flooded and is probably ruined.
Do you think it would be out of the question to invest in another
home there once -- or if -- the city gets back up and running? I
already miss the city!
-- Clyde
 Dear
Clyde,
My heart goes out to you and everyone else in
your situation.
Your question is a good one and it's on the minds of thousands,
including several of my friends who had to bail out of the beautiful,
but beleaguered, city. Because there is so much uncertainty now
and an accurate damage assessment remains a long way off, the best
I can do is proffer a few decent guesses.
First, there's no question in my mind that the city
will make a comeback. The horrific situation that unfolded there
will repel many people, but the sight of New Orleans in shambles
will make many who have fallen in love with the place during their
lives yearn to return to its side when allowed to do so. If a judicious
amount of the billions of dollars that the federal government is
throwing at the city is used to meaningfully restore and upgrade
the city's infrastructure, it will come back as a real city; perhaps
much stronger than before -- and sooner than expected.
To take a shot at your question, there are already
speculators trying to snap up bargains along stately St. Charles
Avenue and elsewhere, where classic homes survived but their owners'
psyches didn't. Whether these investors know something we don't,
I can't say.
If you're asking for my gut instinct, I believe many
residents will return if they have the assurances that the levee
system will be reinforced and re-engineered, the drinking water
will be safe, and they can make some kind of living there. But that's
a lot of ifs, and it might be quite a while before those assurances
can be made.
While many of the city's quaint, but low-lying "shotgun"
and Creole cottage homes are hopelessly ruined, the two areas considered
to be the architectural nucleus of New Orleans -- the French Quarter
and the brunt of the Garden District -- remain.
Most of the city's hotels, in the Quarter and the
central business district, suffered little if any flooding in guest
rooms and will also be able to reopen. That's encouraging for potential
return tourists and residents alike.
However, corporate move-outs have plagued the area
for years, and an economy that's based solely on the tourism and
convention industries will remain tough to sustain; especially without
reasonably priced housing for workers. Unfortunately, a lot of that
housing is going to be bulldozed.
Then there's that big intangible factor: confidence.
As past hurricanes have taught us, people have short
memories when it comes to rebuilding in disaster-prone regions.
In 1992, Hurricane Andrew reduced the population of Miami-Dade County,
Fla., by about 40,000 people who fled after the disaster, according
to estimates from the National Association of Home Builders. But
in just two years, the county regained that population, and growth
at pre-Andrew rates resumed. Last year's Florida hurricanes caused
a smaller outflow, but like the tide, there were plenty of replacement
buyers flowing back in to take their places. As we've all learned,
New Orleans' rebuilding challenges are more complex than towns on
the Florida coast, and Katrina's damage was much more extensive.
Maintaining the architectural integrity of New Orleans
will also be important for returning -- or new -- homeowners who
hope to sustain or rebuild value. It remains to be seen how much
restoration of the marginally salvageable classic architecture will
happen and what type of replacement construction will occur where
houses can't be saved. Ideally, we'll see construction of "contextual"
homes -- those that blend aesthetic elements of the old with safer
building components of the new. I suspect there will be a lot of
dirt and other material trucked in to keep the levels of new lots
and neighborhoods well above grade, if feasible.
As you can see, there are a lot of moving parts to
this recovery. But I wouldn't be in too big of a hurry to use that
insurance check to rebuild in New Orleans until you see a cohesive,
safe and viable reconstruction pattern emerging there.
For now, no one knows how recovery is going to play
out and what kind of leadership will emerge to facilitate it.
Good luck to you and everyone affected by Hurricane
Katrina.
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