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When will CD rates rise?

By Sheyna Steiner · Bankrate.com
Friday, February 25, 2011
Posted: 1 pm ET

In case you hadn't noticed, CD rates are abysmally low and have been for quite some time. Rates are also likely to stay low through 2011.

To find out why -- and get some hints as to when rates may show significant improvement – one need only look to how CD rates are set.

CD rates can be tied to a range of indices or rates. They can be linked to the stock market, commodities or even currencies, but the majority of CDs pay a rate of interest based on more familiar standards such as the prime rate and Treasury security yields, according to Investinginbonds.com, an educational website run by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, or SIFMA.  

The federal funds rate impacts both the prime rate and Treasury yields. The federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee, and it's the rate at which banks lend each other money overnight. Right now, the federal funds rate is targeted at 0 to 0.25 percent.

When the Fed increases these short-term interest rates, banks pass that cost on to consumers in the form of higher borrowing costs. As well, investors can expect to receive higher interest rates on bonds and certificates of deposit.  

The prime rate is typically about 3 percentage points over the federal funds rate, and it's an important benchmark rate for loans. The prime rate is calculated by The Wall Street Journal, and that number is tracked on Bankrate's Rate Watch page.

Banks may also set CD rates based on Treasury security yields. Typically, the 10-year Treasury note is watched to determine the direction of yields on bonds and CDs.

How is the yield on Treasury notes set? Good question.

The federal funds rate does affect 10-year Treasury note yields, according to a 2005 paper by Kane Snyder, "How the federal funds rate affects 10-year Treasury bond yields."

But there are many other variables that influence yields, including unemployment. Demand for Treasury securities can push yields up or down as well. Recently the yield on Treasury bonds has been going up. This week the 10-year Treasury is yielding 3.60 percent, up nearly 20 basis points from one month ago.

A story on CNNmoney.com in early February, "Bond shoppers: 10-year yields pushing near 4 percent," predicted that the second half of 2011 could see 10-year Treasury yields hitting 4 or 4.5 percent. And that could be good news for CD investors.

When do you think CD rates will go up?

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6 Comments
barefootpoet
March 01, 2011 at 7:54 pm

Anonymous said--

"The Stock Market has averaged a return around 10% over the last 20 years, and most Money Market accounts can average 8%"

anonymous
March 01, 2011 at 4:30 pm

barefoot poet,
you have yet to find the 8% mma not b/c you haven't looked in the right places but b/c it doesn't exist. you should do some research to see what the market bears to help manage your expectations rather than pick an arbitrary number that you would like.

barefootpoet
February 28, 2011 at 6:42 pm

I'd sure like to find a MMA that pays an average of 8%. Where am I not looking?

barefootpoet
February 26, 2011 at 6:40 pm

I don't see CD rates going up for another year, if not longer. The housing market crisis that began in 2008 is still added weight on our economic recovery and with the housing market still in the tank there's hardly any equity to for homeowners to take advantage of these historically low interest rates. But the Fed will have no choice but to still keep the rates low for however long.

Anonymous
February 26, 2011 at 7:26 am

CDs are not a good investment vehicle. The Stock Market has averaged a return around 10% over the last 20 years, and most Money Market accounts can average 8%. On the other hand, even at their best, CDs have averaged less than the rate of inflation (~5%), which means your basically throwing your cash away.