Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

 
Panel Prediction
Up Down Unchanged
6% 23% 71%
 

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed over the next week.

For the coming week, (Sept. 23-29), 71 percent of the panelists believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points); 6 percent believe mortgage rates will rise; and 23 percent think rates will fall.

Click on the three tabs above to read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts.

Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.

 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Barry Habib

Barry Habib

CEO, Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J.
Sideways to higher on rates.
 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Greg McBride

Greg McBride

CFA, Senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
The Federal Reserve is concerned about deflation and that will drive mortgage rates lower.
Holden Lewis

Holden Lewis

Senior reporter, Bankrate.com
Bond speculators will bring rates down in advance of the Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing.
Michael Becker

Michael Becker

Mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
With mortgage rates on the rise at the end of last week and the beginning of this week, the Federal Reserve came to the rescue. Its statement that it “will provide additional accommodation if needed” convinced the bond markets that further quantitative easing was imminent. Treasury and mortgage-backed security yields dropped, as did mortgage rates. With the Fed standing ready to bolster the economy if needed, I think mortgage rates will drop in the coming week.
Dan Green

Dan Green

Waterstone Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee statement pumped hope into mortgage markets.
 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Kevin Breeland

Kevin Breeland

General manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
After an up-and-down week (mainly down) in mortgage-backed securities, my experience tells me the markets are still very volatile. They have struggled to get past the 25-day moving average and have had some days of falling below the 50-day moving average. I believe this will continue for an extended time frame. However, I look for rates to remain unchanged for the next seven days.
Derek Egeberg

Derek Egeberg

Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Ariz.
After an amazing turnaround in the stock market and bond market we ended up exactly back where we started. The momentary panic of rates going up should be a good “last call” for anyone looking to refinance or purchase while rates are at these historic low levels.
Chris Karageorge

Chris Karageorge

Senior home loan adviser, Universal American Mortgage Company, Wayzata, Minn.
The trend is your friend until something changes.
David Kuiper

David Kuiper

Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Mortgage interest rates continue to trade at or near all-time low levels. This will continue to be true as long as we have a bleak employment picture. The Fed statement this week backs up this information, which is bond-friendly (where mortgage interest rates are derived from). While not many are projecting a significant decrease in interest rates, the time is right to take advantage of them.
Dick Lepre

Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
While the techs are still bearish — lower prices, higher yields — there is simply little or no belief the economy is growing. NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) — an independent group hired by the government to date recessions — declared this week that the recession ended in June 2009. This is despite the fact that consumer spending started declining at the start of this year.
NBER says if we lapse back into recession, it will not be a “double dip” or a continuation of the previous one. NBER is really missing the point. The previous recession saw an uptick in gross domestic product fueled by deficit spending. It’s irresponsible to ignore the fact that an intravenous dose of Keynesian spending has failed and that GDP is turning down.
Jim Sahnger

Jim Sahnger

Mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
The Federal Reserve spoke this week and indicated it is committed to keeping rates low for an extended period. Mortgage rates should stay low, but volatility on a day-to-day basis should continue. Choosing the right day and window to lock is important to get the greatest savings. Since Sept. 13, the cost to obtain the lowest rate available has been anywhere from zero percent to 1 percent. Currently, we are at the low end of that scale, so now is a great time to lock.
When locking your rate on a refinance, be cautious on the window for which you lock. Many lenders are taking an extended period of time to underwrite and close files.
Chris Sipe

Chris Sipe

Senior loan officer, Embrace Home Loans, Frederick, Md.
Knee-jerk reactions to conflicting market reports have introduced a lot of volatility the past two weeks. However, the Federal Reserve’s comments Tuesday eased concerns about inflation while voicing concerns about slowing growth. Both are good for mortgage bonds and rates. I still think we are near a bottom in rates, but they should stay relatively unchanged in the near term on the Fed’s guidance.
 

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