Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (April 22 - April 28) the experts say: This week, a near-majority of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so. Another 12 percent think rates will fall, and 41 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
This week there are some key reports to keep an eye on with Thursday being the busy day. On Thursday we will have Existing Home Sales, Producer Price Index, and Initial Jobless claims. All or any one of the reports if better than expected could create a selloff and therefore increase rates. On Friday we have New Home Sales and Durable Goods ... again another possible volatile day. I believe the next seven days will see higher rates probably in the 0.125 percent to 0.25 percent increase range.
Kevin Breeland, general manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
Rates should remain steady with a greater tendency to increase.
John Walsh, president, Total Mortgage Services, Milford, Conn.
The 10-year Treasury is currently trading at 3.8 percent. Given the current economic outlook, much lower rates are very unlikely, but there will be some opportunities to lock in at the lowest end of the current market but you need to watch closely. The fear of no buyers for Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities has proven to be unfounded (as I stated before).
Mitch Ohlbaum, loan officer, Bank of America, Los Angeles
While gas prices rise, so will mortgage rates. Get locked ASAP.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
The combination of strong home sales, lower jobless claims, and "big player" Q1 gains push mortgage rates north.
Tommy Xintaris, senior mortgage consultant, Envoy Mortgage, Ltd., Houston
The daily and weekly techs are both bullish (higher prices, lower yields) which could induce a modest dip in rates. It should be noted that the expected uptick in mortgage rates from the Fed's exit has not yet materialized. In the long run my concerns about Treasury yields and mortgage rates were summed up in a statement by Greenspan. The key sentence from Greenspan was that historically, there had been "a large buffer between the level of our federal debt and our capacity to borrow. That's narrowing. And I'm finding it very difficult to look into the future and not worry about that."
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage Inc., San Francisco
Continuing negative economic news continues to buoy mortgage-backed securities, and mortgage interest rates continue to remain very attractive. As long as inflation doesn't rear its ugly head (and it likely won't in the near term) rates will continue to remain fairly stable. Consult your local mortgage professional to see what you can do in today's environment.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Jobs, jobs, jobs or lack thereof ... along with the news about Goldman Sachs, any positive news will be offset, keeping rates relatively unchanged in the next week. Keep a close eye on oil as that may be a key indicator and impact rates in the near future.
Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago
The exit of the Fed from the mortgage-backed security market has not resulted in the increase in mortgage rates that many were predicting. While some segments of the economy seem to be improving, like retail sales and manufacturing, lingering concerns over high unemployment and the continued potential for a sovereign default (Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc.) are likely to keep a lid on interest rates for now. In the next week I see rates dropping slightly.
Michael Becker, mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
I look for more of the same in the coming week as the MBS market continues to stabilize without the impact of the Federal Reserve as a buyer. However, there are a number of economic reports that could shake things up a bit on the calendar. While I expect rates to remain range bound, I would lock either early in the application process or at application. Rate risk and day-to-day volatility continue.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Upbeat economic news will push mortgage rates a bit higher, but next week's FOMC post-meeting statement will be crafted in a way that minimizes the impact.
Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
The next rate-moving economic report will be the Fed's monetary policy statement next Wednesday.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.