Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (April 15 - April 21): This week, 39 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so. Another 22 percent think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
The daily tech has turned bullish (higher prices, lower yields), but the weekly is still bearish which should mitigate the effect of the bullish daily.
I got an e-mail from our company talking about our new ARM programs. I believe that anyone concerned about where rates will be five years from now should avoid ARMs. The size of the deficits is likely to create substantial upward pressure on yields for fixed-income securities. To date, the effect has been muted by the lack of inflation.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage Inc., San Francisco
With all the factors that could have an effect on rates it appears for now that effect was short. I don't believe we are past volatile times, but for the next week, I do not expect rates to change.
Kevin Breeland, general manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
The interest rate roller coaster has begun. The market spent the last week recovering from the post-3/31 storm that saw rates spike up significantly. Now it appears that things have settled down. The decision to lock vs. float is still day to day. So keep in close contact with your loan officer if you are floating.
Chris Karageorge, senior home loan adviser, Universal American Mortgage Co., Wayzata, Minn.
As safe haven buying recedes, mortgage rates advance.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
With lots of market-moving reports on tap the remainder of this week, mortgage rates will see a spike as last week's gains are now diminishing.
Tommy Xintaris, senior mortgage consultant, Envoy Mortgage Ltd., Houston
Rates will continue to trade in a very narrow range (30-year fixed rates in the low 5 percents for now). A continuing weak employment picture and no near term signs of inflation will keep a damper on rates rising for now. Remember ... only two weeks to secure a contract in order to take advantage of the homebuyer tax credits due to expire at the end of the month. Schedule some time with your local mortgage professional to see how you can take advantage of today's low interest rate environment.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
The higher yields on Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities have brought buyers of these fixed income instruments back into the market. There was strong demand at last week's Treasury auctions. This resulted in higher prices and lower yields which helped bring mortgage rates down over the last week. Moving forward, the limited supply of new loans will help keep mortgage rates from rising in the near term. Over the next week mortgage rates hold steady.
Michael Becker, mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
Look for rates to remain reasonably unchanged with day-to-day volatility. While I expect rates to stay reasonably flat, any real change would likely be higher so prudent rate shoppers will be locking early in the application process.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
The absence of inflation and the Fed's commitment to keeping short-term rates low will keep a lid on mortgage rates.
Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
The trend is upward, and it will be for months. Rates might fall from one day to the next, or one week to the next. But they're generally heading up.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.