Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (April 28 - May 5) the experts say: This week, more than half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next week or so. About a third think rates will rise, and 16 percent predict that rates will fall even further.
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
Until the PIIGS are saved, rates will fall on flight-to-quality.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
Lock while the locking is good. There seems to be very little to gain and potentially a lot to lose by waiting. You might catch a small dip here and there if you wait, but you also might be left standing on the dock when the low-rate ship sails away.
Chris Karageorge, senior home loan adviser, Universal American Mortgage Co., Wayzata, Minn.
With bond markets being abandoned last week, rates took a slight increase as predicted. I do not foresee any "market-shattering" news to come out that will swing mortgage rates in either direction, however the day-to-day volatility is still there and should be followed closely. Remember, there is lot more room for mortgage rates to rise than improve, so be on the defense.
Tommy Xintaris, senior mortgage consultant, Envoy Mortgage Ltd., Houston
All the data is out about Greece, Goldman Sachs and the Fed's minutes. Even though it is all bad, sad, etc., there is very little room for rates to go lower, so an increase is inevitable. Lock if you can.
Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago
This week S&P downgraded Greece's debt to junk status and also lowered Portugal's debt two levels. The risk of a sovereign default increased with these actions and has caused a flight to the relative safety of U.S. Treasuries. This increase demand for U.S. debt lowered the yields on Treasuries and also helped lower mortgage rates. There are more concerns about the debt of other EU nations such as Ireland, Spain and Italy. These concerns should help keep rates low, but there is a large supply of new Treasuries coming and that would tend to result in higher mortgage rates. In the coming week I think these two developments offset each other and help keep mortgage rates level.
Michael Becker, mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
A continued struggling stock market and international fiscal unrest has money fleeing to the relative safety of bonds, including mortgage-backed securities. This will continue to keep mortgage rates in the very attractive range they are currently in for the near future. Remember, mortgage interest rates benefit from negative news (which we certainly don't want to wish for!). Even though the federal tax credits go away after this week, it is still an opportune time to buy, build or refinance your home today. Consult with your local mortgage professional to make personal application.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Rates should remain stable.
John Walsh, president, Total Mortgage Services, Milford, Conn.
The techs were bullish and became overbought short-term. Treasury yields are moving in harmony with the perception of EU problems (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy). The underlying message is still the importance of fiscal sustainability.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage Inc., San Francisco
This week, we witnessed the near collapse of the Greece and Portugal financial systems and investors flocked to bonds for safe havens. I don't believe these worldwide discoveries are over. On the other hand, we are seeing our own economy improving. So I believe rates for the next seven days will remain unchanged.
Kevin Breeland, general manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina Mount Pleasant, S.C.
The 10-year Treasury is 3.72 percent. The jobs report is coming out May 7 and the expectation is that there will be 200,000 new jobs! If that happens, you can bet rates will increase, at least temporarily. Also on the table is the Fed meeting, and while they did NOT raise rates, the discussion about the "trend" is ultimately more important than actually what happened. Inflation remains in check, which will help keep a damper on increases.
Mitch Ohlbaum, loan officer, Bank of America, Los Angeles
There is a flight to quality in U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as some European debt is getting riskier by the day. As more folks pile into these U.S. investments, rates will drop a little more. The housing economy is still very tentative. Prices are low and rates are low ... spring bargain.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
The Fed left rates unchanged Wednesday and the appetite from MBS investors has kept rates pretty consistent from the end of March. Look for rates to remain consistent, but day-to-day changes should be expected. It's still prudent to lock early in the application process.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Nervousness about Europe will keep U.S. rates low, and the Fed is in no hurry to change that.
Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
On a week-to-week basis, mortgage rates have been remarkably stable.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
Mortgage bonds look like a much better investment than they did six months ago. That should help to tame rates for the time being.
Chris Kissell, senior editor, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.