mortgage
Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (June 18 - June 24) the experts say: Although rates probably will fall, you probably should lock now, anyway. A majority of the panelists believe mortgage rates will fall over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 20 percent think rates will rise, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
| Experts' comments | Panel |
The daily and weekly techs are bullish (higher prices and lower yields), which should bring lower rates in the next two weeks. This will mean nothing unless someone other than the Fed is willing to buy mortgage debt.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco | 
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Fed intervention drops mortgage rates.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Mobium Mortgage, Cincinnati |
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We have had a welcome rally in the wake of two terrible weeks that saw rates climb 0.75 percent, but is it a "suckers" rally? We could flatten out and go sideways from here. But long term, rates should continue to climb due to inflation pressures and a strengthening economy. Don't "float" or hope, as it will more than likely hurt in the end.
Chris Sipe, senior mortgage consultant, Mason Dixon Funding, Frederick, Md. | 
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The economy is still terrible. No more putting lipstick on a pig through the gossip mill trying to portray the big economic rebound. As soon as rates moved up a few weeks ago, the housing market froze again. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, can you hear me now?
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif. |
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Rates have really improved since the end of last week, and I think the big reason for the improvement is the realization that we are not out of the woods yet with respect to the recession. Over the next few weeks, I expect the stock market to continue to sell off, which is good for bonds and should help drive rates slightly lower. However, next week the Treasury will be selling over $100 billion of new two-, five-, and seven-year Treasury notes. In the face of such a large issuance of new Treasuries, it will be hard for bond yields and mortgage rates drop drastically. So while I think rates will drop a little more, my advice to anyone who is in the middle of a refinance or a purchase is to take advantage of the drop in rates and lock in now.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md. |
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With the rally of the mortgage-backed securities in the past few days making up for the past week's "bull" run, rates will remain relatively unchanged in the weeks ahead. Do not wait for below 5 percent rates if it makes financial sense to do something now, as it may not happen, and you do not want to miss this opportunity.
Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago | 
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After a rough two weeks in the Treasury and mortgage markets, we are finally getting some relief. The 10-year is trading at 3.59 percent, which is down 35 basis points from last, and mortgage rates are following. The inflation component is now 1.82 percent, trading down 27 basis points in just the past four days. The Fed has also been more aggressive in buying Treasuries in light of the recent run-up in long-term rates.
Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles |
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Rates have improved significantly over the last few days and have room for a little bit more of pricing gains. Recent tame inflation reports and a struggling stock market allow for us to continue to trade in the low- to mid-5 percent range. But don't get complacent -- this little rally could be short-lived, and our advice is to take advantage of the current rate environment while we get a bit of a breather.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. |
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Even though interest rates have gotten a reprieve in the last few days, I expect continued concerns about the pending pipeline of bonds to drive rates higher. Even if rates are not higher throughout the summer, the ride to the fall season will be filled with volatility, with days of higher and lower rates. This is not a time to gamble but make decisions based on what works for you when presented an opportunity to lock.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. |
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| Bankrate's analysts | Panel |
There is no telling how long the pullback in rates will last or if they'll retreat much further, so be prepared to lock on the dip.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com |
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Occasionally, Rate Trend Index stalwart Dick Lepre votes "clueless." I'm tempted to do that this week. The economic fundamentals haven't changed in one month, so I suppose rates will drop back near where they were a month ago. How confident am I in this prediction? Not very.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com |
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About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.