Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for July 9 - 15, 2026

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

For the last several months, the direction of interest rates has been less about economic data and more about the Iranian conflict. Hopes of a memorandum of understanding have been trashed by Iran firing at three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump didn't take that lightly, ordered 80 targets to be struck in Iran and likely won't stop there. Oil increased to $75, but [it’s] still well off previous highs this year. Time will tell where we go from here, but short term, look for rates to rise a bit.

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Greenwood Village , CO

Slightly up: I expect rates to stay flat with an upward bias until we get a verified resolution to the Iran conflict. The renewed strikes and the collapsed ceasefire pushed oil and the 10-year up overnight, but the interesting part was the magnitude: Both are already pulling back off that pop rather than climbing further. Markets are trading the news, but with a grain of salt, and that restraint is the real signal.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate has moved slightly higher over the past week, and I expect mortgage rates to follow. Without a significant development in the economic or geopolitical environment, I don't expect rates to move significantly.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates are on the rise again, as the fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States unravels. Oil prices have surged, bringing bond yields and mortgage rates higher once again.

Derek Egeberg

Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ

Mortgage rates, unfortunately, must go up, given the rise in stock prices and the bump in the inflation numbers. The [Federal Reserve] will have an interesting balance beam routine over the next several months.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

My prediction: Rates drift slightly higher. There's one genuine wildcard this week: June's inflation report lands Tuesday, July 14. May's [Personal Consumption Expenditures] reading came in at 3.4% year-over-year — not the direction anyone wanted. But June's jobs report was soft, with just 57,000 jobs added, and a cooling labor market is the one thing that could talk bonds off the ledge. My read: The inflation data wins this round. Rates hold or tick up a few basis points. They don't fall.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

On one side of the coin, re-escalating tensions in the Gulf region combine with increasing inflation worries to put upward pressure on long-term mortgage rates. On the other side, sluggish job market reports are putting downward pressure. Thus, it is pretty much a toss-up on mortgage rates for next week. My guess is that the sluggish job market will have more impact. Thus, we should expect long-term mortgage rates to be down next week.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I believe mortgage rates are likely to trend modestly lower in the near term. While I don't expect a sharp decline, conditions are beginning to align for a gradual improvement in mortgage pricing. Inflation has cooled from its peak, and although the economy remains resilient, growth is becoming more balanced. That should help ease pressure on the bond market, which plays a key role in determining mortgage rates. Over the next several weeks, the primary driver will be incoming economic data. If inflation continues to moderate and the labor market softens without a significant slowdown, investor confidence that interest rates have peaked will likely increase, leading to slightly lower mortgage rates. That said, I don't expect a straight path downward. We'll likely see periods of volatility as investors react to economic reports, Federal Reserve commentary and global events.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

We should see flat rates unless politics affect oil prices.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go nowhere. War and peace talk includes skirmishes pushing rates up and down. The Federal Reserve is sidelined by near-term inflation and solid jobs. Neutral fits the news around war and oil.