Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for September 17 - 23, 2026

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Higher. The expected Fed rate hike has materialized. I believe that there is a real chance that Warsh's [Federal Reserve] may take an even stronger hawkish turn and implement unexpected, additional rate hikes and/or expected rate hikes at previously unexpected levels in the coming weeks and months. In any event, I expect mortgage rates to move higher — maybe significantly higher — in the near future.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

While yields on 10-year Treasuries are starting to flatten, we can expect the risk premium (spread) associated with holding mortgages as an investment to continue to widen. The two together typically act as a proxy for next period's mortgage rate. The combined result: We can expect long-term mortgage rates to be higher next week.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I expect mortgage rates to move slightly higher or remain elevated in the coming week. The 10-year Treasury yield, which I watch closely because of its relationship with mortgage rates, recently moved above 5% after being below 4.8% earlier this month. That tells me the bond market continues to be concerned about inflation and the possibility that interest rates may have to remain higher for longer. For consumers, this is another affordability challenge. Mortgage rates are already near their highest levels in more than a year, and higher borrowing costs, combined with elevated home prices, are keeping some prospective buyers on the sidelines. My expectation for the coming week is not necessarily a dramatic spike in mortgage rates, because some of the anticipated Fed move has already been priced into the market. But I do see an upward bias.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Large gains in import prices will send inflation a notch higher.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I expect rates to drift down over the next week, but not materially.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates will stabilize this week thanks to the Fed’s rate hike and an easing of oil prices, as Saudi Arabia prepares to reopen its damaged pipeline. As anticipated, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by .25% in an effort to stem rising inflation. The bond market has cheered this increase, and bond yields softened on the news. Lasting stability will depend on oil and economic data. We could all use a break from surging rates!

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

The Federal Reserve concluded its meeting Wednesday, and [it] chose to increase [the federal funds rate] by 0.25%, moving the target range to 3.75-4.00%. The immediate reaction was a very short improvement to rates which quickly evaporated before the end of Warsh's press conference. Elevated rates are based on a strong economy, widespread demand for capital and geopolitical concerns. I don't see anything changing to bringing rates down, but they should be rangebound the next week.