Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for November 5 - 11, 2026
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Rate-watchers polled by Bankrate are split on where they expect rates to head in the coming week.
While 50% of experts think rates will decrease, another 25% believe they'll increase and another 25% believe they'll stay flat.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.26% as of November 4, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders.
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Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of November 5 - 11, 2026
| Go up | 25% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 25% |
| Go down | 50% |
A strong jobs number or a hot [Consumer Price Index] read gives the [Federal Reserve] its reason, and rates move first and ask questions later. Last week’s dip was a breather, not a turn — rates won’t wait for the election results to settle.Denise McManus, Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending
25% say rates will go up
Jeff Lazerson
President, MortgageGrader
Once elections are over, I expect the war with Iran to heat up, causing more inflation and resulting higher mortgage rates.
Denise McManus
Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending
Up, modestly. Look for the 30-year to stay above 7% and edge higher, not lower. We get two big reports back to back: October jobs on Friday and October Consumer Price Index next Tuesday. Inflation is running 3.7%, and markets already see a December hike as likely. A strong jobs number or a hot [Consumer Price Index] read gives the [Federal Reserve] its reason, and rates move first and ask questions later. Last week’s dip was a breather, not a turn — rates won’t wait for the election results to settle.
50% say rates will go down
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
I expect mortgage rates to decline modestly over the next week. The results of the recent U.S. elections should create gridlock and constrain additional federal spending, which could help reduce pressure on Treasury yields. However, persistent inflation and the possibility of further Federal Reserve tightening will likely limit any significant decline.
Robert J. Smith
Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage
Barring any surprises from Friday’s employment data, I expect mortgage rates to be slightly lower over the next week, as the political landscape for the next two years takes shape.
Les Parker, CMB
Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL
A solid U.S. dollar, U.S. government gridlock and increased certainty about the future of oil flows from Russia and the Middle East supports lower rates.
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates will drop again this week. The midterm elections have fueled the latest drop, as the markets react [favorably] to the impending gridlock in Washington. The strong showing by the Democrats will aid in controlling deficit spending, push to end the war in Iran and other measures that are bond-market friendly.
25% say unchanged–
Dr. Anthony O. Kellum
President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI
I expect mortgage rates to hold roughly flat in the coming week. The 30-year fixed has drifted down to about 7.07%, roughly 16 basis points lower than a week ago, and the 10-year Treasury is sitting just under 4.9%. With the Fed on hold after its October meeting and the market in wait-and-see mode, I don't see a catalyst for a sharp move in either direction near term. The wild card is Friday's jobs report, which is the week's biggest scheduled event for bond pricing. September payrolls came in soft at 29,000, so another weak print could nudge rates modestly lower. But my base case is that the 30-year stays in the low 7s, and I'm calling it flat.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
The Democratic party has taken over Congress while we have a Republican president. This division should lead to less political control of the economy.