Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for April 30 - May 6, 2026

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Greenwood Village , CO

Mortgage rates will move slightly higher this week, as the Iran conflict continues to tighten its grip on global energy markets. Peace talks have stalled, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and Brent Crude has climbed above $113, keeping inflation elevated and pushing bond yields higher. With the Fed holding steady today, Friday's jobs report still ahead, and no resolution in sight [to the Iran conflict], rates will continue trading in a tight, but upward-leaning, range until the market gets a definitive signal from the Middle East.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates continue to move higher, as oil prices continue to climb as the conflict in Iran remains unresolved. The Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged has not impacted the rates at all. The easing bias was good news for the markets but completely overshadowed by rising oil prices.

Derek Egeberg

Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ

Rates will continue drifting higher. The Iranian conflict, disruption in shipping goods and resources, and the unclear taxing strategies of California and New York will continue to push mortgage rates higher until there is clarity for major investors.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Mortgage rates are likely to edge higher over the next week even with a soft labor market keeping recession worries alive. The Fed left rates unchanged, but its focus on upside inflation risks remain, driven in part by global energy prices. This is what bond traders are reacting to now. That concern is pushing longer-term Treasury yields up, and mortgage rates tend to move in the same direction. With inflation anxiety overshadowing weaker jobs data, the path of least resistance for rates in the near term is a modest move higher rather than any meaningful retreat.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Higher. The 10-year Treasury rate has moved up, and mortgage rates have followed. With the Federal Reserve maintaining its current interest rate target, there was no surprise information from the Fed’s recent meeting. Given the upward pressure on oil and the resulting expected inflation in prices of consumer goods, I expect that mortgage rates will continue to creep upward slightly.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Rates have been trending downwardly the past several weeks, and they will continue to do so.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go down. Creeping higher rates provide no momentum but have reached the upper end of the recent range. Consequently, expect U.S. rates to drop to the lower end of the range.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I expect rates to drift lower over the next week.

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

I’m looking for mortgage rates to remain little changed over the coming week.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I expect mortgage interest rates to hold relatively steady this week. While there is always day-to-day volatility in the bond market, I do not see a strong catalyst pushing rates meaningfully lower in the immediate term. From my perspective, the primary forces at play right now are continued geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns. Both factors tend to put upward pressure on yields or, at the very least, prevent rates from dropping quickly. Even when we see moments of optimism in the market, they have been short-lived because the underlying inflation story has not yet fully resolved.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

I feel like a broken record the past few weeks, however, mortgage rates are holding steady for now, but the pressure is building. The Fed continues to signal a “higher-for-longer” stance, and with inflation proving sticky and geopolitical tensions lingering, bond yields remain elevated.