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Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for March 14 - 20, 2024

March 13, 2024
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Expect mortgage rates to go up in the coming week, according to the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.

Of those polled, 58 percent of respondents predict rates will rise over the next week. Just 25 percent believe rates will decrease, with 17 percent predicting rates to hold firm.

The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.00 percent as of March 13, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, down from last week’s average of 7.09.

Rate Trend Index

Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed

Week of March 14 - 20, 2024

Experts say rates will...

Go up 58%
Stay the same 17%
Go down 25%
Percentages might not equal 100 due to rounding.

The inflation numbers released this week weren’t great — not terrible, but not a warm and fuzzy feeling either — so after a brief retreat, mortgage rates are now rebounding.

— Greg McBride
Bankrate

58% say rates will go up


Robert Brusca photo

Robert Brusca

Chief economist, Facts and Opinions Economics , New York

Higher.

Melissa Cohn photo

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates are ticking higher this week as inflation continues to be sticky. Core CPI was reported at 3.8 percent, nearly double the Fed’s goal of 2 percent. Retail sales are also expected to rebound as car sales and gas prices increase. The Fed will definitely not be cutting rates next week!

Derek Egeberg photo

Derek Egeberg

Branch Manager, Guild Mortgage , Yuma , Arizona

As inflation is reported higher than expected so too will interest rates drift higher than most estimated. The underlying fundamentals of consumers continuing to overspend on credit cards and driving inflation higher have not changed. Until the data point of consumers' spending on credit cards begins to show balances falling and pressure for goods reducing, watch for inflation and thus mortgage rates to increase.

Greg McBride photo

Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

The inflation numbers released this week weren’t great — not terrible, but not a warm and fuzzy feeling either — so after a brief retreat, mortgage rates are now rebounding.

Joel Naroff photo

Joel Naroff

President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania

[Rates are going] up. Markets will start pricing in a July 31, not June 12 rate cut.

James Sahnger photo

James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , Florida

Higher. Following a stronger-than-expected labor report as well as CPI, expect pressure on rates.

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA photo

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA

CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY

Higher.

25% say rates will go down


Dan Green photo

Dan Green

CEO, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , Ohio

Homebuyers can expect lots of posturing between now and next week's FOMC meeting with speculation on a change in Fed policy. Mortgage rates [will go] down.

Ken H. Johnson photo

Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

It is officially political season, making it a bit more difficult to predict rates. However, mortgage rates are highly correlated with the yield on 10-year Treasurys, which are down three of the last four days. Therefore, it is most likely that mortgage rates will be down as well. My call — long-term mortgage rates should be down, if only slightly, next week.

Jeff Lazerson photo

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Down. Slowdown ahead.

17% say unchanged


Dick Lepre photo

Dick Lepre

Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA

Trend: Flat. Rates moved lower last week. We saw a 6.875 percent 30-year fixed. PPI and Retail Sales are due for release on March 14 and could move rates.

Michael Becker photo

Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , Maryland

Mortgage rates are rising this week, after hitting three-week lows last week. The reason for rising rates is the CPI, or Consumer Price Index report, which showed slightly higher core inflation than what was expected. This is a reminder that getting inflation down to the Fed’s target rate is not going to be easy. The Fed will likely be on hold for a bit longer. Next week the Fed meets to discuss the economy, inflation and the future of rates. For now, I think rates will hold at their current levels and wait for the Fed decision next week.