Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (March 4 - March 10) the experts say: Don't expect mortgage rates to fall any more. This week, 43 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so. The rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
The daily and weekly techs were all very nicely bullish at the end of last week but the short-term techs (ones less than one day) became oversold. Once you read this, the bullish daily and weekly should have reasserted and Treasury yields should move lower, but not dramatically. Mortgage rates are still under the cloud of the Fed exiting the market at the end of this month. I am going with "clueless" more as a reflection of my mood.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage Inc., San Francisco
Markets adjust to "Life After Fed Intervention."
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
There is no inflation; not in wages, real estate or consumer goods. Our bigger concern is deflation as there is no job growth. Mortgages will remain in the 4.75 percent range for the foreseeable future. To save more homeowners, look for the government to waive appraisals on no-cash-out refinances.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
Facing no immediate inflationary pressures at this time, mortgage bonds continue to trade in a very narrow range. Continued negative economic data, primarily on the employment front, continue to bolster mortgage-backed securities for the time being.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Mortgage rates have been remarkably stable and have even come down a bit over the last couple of weeks. This is despite the knowledge that the Fed will be ending its purchases of mortgage-backed securities this month. With Fannie Mae announcing it will purchase delinquent loans, perhaps this will allow the banks who sell these loans to step up and replace the Fed in purchasing mortgage-backed securities. This would help slow the inevitable rise in mortgage rates. Perhaps this is part of the Fed's exit strategy. I don't know, but time will tell. For the coming week I think rates will hold steady.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
While my normal thoughts on the direction of rates have been higher, the mortgage-backed securities markets continue to impress and show strength, keeping rates in check. Even late Wednesday, following a modestly improved Beige Book, rates held their ground. All expectations now point to a weak nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, so for now, we should remain flat. I'm still in favor of locking, though, at the levels we are at.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Predicting mortgage rates over the next week is essentially a bet on Friday's employment report. Job losses could be worse than expected, but much of it will be chalked up to poor winter weather. But hold on to your hats because mortgage rates will start to move up noticeably in the next few weeks.
Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
The end of superlow rates is nigh. The Fed climbs out of the mortgage pool.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.