Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (Dec. 24 - Dec. 30) the experts say: It's almost evenly split among those predicting a rise and those forecasting a fall. This week, almost half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. A little more than half think rates will fall. No one predicted that rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
The daily tech will have run through its bearish (lower prices, higher yields and rates) cycle by Christmas. With trading thinned by the holidays, there may be volatility, but we should start to see the daily tech turn bullish the week after Christmas and bring mortgage rates down after the New Year. The weekly tech had been bouncing back and forth at mid-level but still has not finished its bearish cycle. Once the weekly upcrosses (at the end of January?), we may well see the last gasp for low rates because the Federal Reserve will exit the market at the end of (the first quarter of 2010).
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., San Francisco
Decent economic news, rising inflation fears and weak Treasury auctions all bode ill for mortgages. Expect to see rates climb toward the 5.5 percent area on a 30-year fixed.
Mike Larson, interest rate and real estate analyst, MoneyandMarkets.com, Jupiter, Fla.
Short term, from now till the end of the month, rates will be very volatile. A short work week before the holidays (and) end of the year positioning will have mortgage-backed securities on a roller coaster ride the rest of the month. After Jan. 1, I expect rates to decline back to early December levels.
Kevin Breeland, general manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
This week's rocket ride is an overreaction. The pendulum swings back.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
The 10-year is trading at 3.75 percent, which is much higher than we have seen in a while, and from the most recent news, it does not seem that we are heading back down anytime. The good news is that the mortgage rates have not moved in sync with treasury rates and mortgage rates have remained quite low. More good news, the Fed is clearly not going to raise their rates anytime in the near future either and jeopardize our wobbly anemic economy. Take advantage and lock those rates!
Mitch Ohlbaum, loan officer, Bank of America, Los Angeles
Once the retail numbers come out, and are less than expected, along with unemployment news continuing to be dismal, these indicators will counter any good news, and we will see a slight decline in rates. What an amazing time to buy a new home, as all of the variables are there -- low rates, diversified inventory and motivated sellers.
Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago
New-home sales plunged. Consumer confidence is questionable. Mortgage applications are way down in spite of record low rates. This is certainly the formula for lower rates.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
Santa came early for rate shoppers, checking in and out at the tail end of November. Rates are still historically great, so don't lose perspective. These last 12 months will be thought of as the good old days of mortgage rates.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Mortgage rates have continued their upward climb of the past few weeks. I believe the reason for this is twofold: 1) Recognition by the market that the Fed will be ending its purchases of mortgage-backed securities which have been supporting low mortgage rates, and 2) a belief that recovery has taken hold. I think the market is getting ahead of itself on the second point. That is, until the employment pictures improves I don't see a sustainable recovery. For this reason I expect mortgage rates to edge downward.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
Treasury yields and mortgage rates have been bounding higher as the economic outlook improves by the day. I expect this trend to reverse in the coming weeks, taking rates a bit lower, but not revisiting the record lows of last month.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Rates have been rising, and I think they'll go up some more, overshoot the mark, and fall back a bit. In four or six weeks, mortgage rates probably will be about where they are now. In the meantime, they'll be higher.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.