Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (Oct. 15 - Oct. 21) the experts say: Mortgage rates are on the rise. This week, about two-thirds of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. A small minority think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
In the short term (two weeks) we are likely to see higher Treasury yields and mortgage rates. It looks as if the weekly tech is still bullish enough to support another daily bull cycle, which would mean another bottom in about five weeks. That bottom may be the end of low rates for quite a while. This market is volatile and filled with uncertainty, so I would not believe anyone including me. One underlying reality is that rates will be higher next year.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage - SF, San Francisco
Mortgage markets respond to a weakening dollar and inflation.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
Due to the gradual phasing out of the Fed's purchase of mortgage-backed securities and the continued weakness in the dollar, I expect rates to inch higher over the next 30 to 45 days.
Tom Vanderwell, StraightTalkAboutMortgages.com, Fifth Third Bank, Grand Rapids, Mich.
It looks like earnings season on Wall Street will impress investors. This will result in money moving from bonds into the equity or stock market causing bond yields and mortgage rates to rise.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
To believe otherwise about rates ignores the following evidence: 1) Mortgage delinquencies are 14 percent; 2) purchase demand is dramatically dropping across the country; 3) unemployment is rising; 4) millions and millions of homes are sitting empty, bank-owned and not yet back on the market as inventory continues to build; 5) immigrants and U.S. citizens are moving to other countries in droves.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
The 10-year is trading at 3.39 percent -- only 7 basis points from last week and down 61 basis points in the last two months. While the press loves to talk about inflation and higher rates, inflation fell to 1.76 percent and 61 percent of traders are betting on lower rates. Hmmm ... who should we listen to? Vice chairman of the Fed said economic slack, stable long term inflation and a slow strengthen of demand will persist for some time, which means higher rates are nowhere in sight for quite a while. Enjoy the low rates!
Mitch Ohlbaum, loan officer, Bank of America, Los Angeles
Mortgage interest rates have once again bottomed out and will continue to hover right around 5 percent for a 30-year fixed rate. Some positive earnings reports have buoyed the stock market, detracting from the bond market. Glimmer of hope for the economy, the Fed phasing out its support and the potential for inflation all point to rates rising ahead.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Rates have been artificially low all year based on Fed stimulus. While the Fed will not end its buying of mortgage-backed securities in December as originally projected, it will be buying less this quarter. The intent is to allow rates to gradually resume their rise to "normal" levels.
One potential caveat released in the Federal Reserve minutes from September's meeting is that several members indicated their willingness to extend the cap as needed. We shall wait and see, but in the meantime, I would be inclined to lock early in the application process and get busy if you would like to refinance or purchase with rates at these levels.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Mortgage rates bouncing off the bottom, but remaining at attractive levels.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
The Fed has done a fairly effective job of managing mortgage rates lately. Rates are about where the Fed wants them to be. For now.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.