Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (Oct. 8 - Oct. 14) the experts say: Rates are likely to remain unchanged. This week, a solid majority of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 29 percent think rates will rise, and the rest believe rates will fall.
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
The 10-year is trading at 3.24 percent with the inflation component at 1.74 percent. Demand for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities was at an all-time high, which tells you what the market is thinking about future inflation. While the unemployment figures are dismal the effect on rates is nil as the market has its own opinions about inflation and where rates are headed. It seems, at least for now, we are at the bottom.
Mitch Ohlbaum, loan officer, Bank of America, Los Angeles
The techs indicate that we are scraping bottom on Treasury yields and mortgage rates. There is, conceivably, another 0.125 percent downside, but when the weekly turns, there is likely a 0.5 percent upside in rates.
At the end of the first quarter of 2010, the Fed is supposed to stop buying FHLMC/FNMA paper. That should create an unpleasant bump upward in rates.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage - SF, San Francisco
Buyers are hiding again as unemployment is climbing. Lower rates are the government's default prescription for stimulating the mortgage market.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
Strong demand for bonds overall offsets dollar weakness.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
Four weeks ago I stated that inflationary fears were overblown and that deflationary concerns would drive mortgages rates down to the lows we reached in the spring. Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates are very close to those lows. While I don't see rates falling any further, I do expect them to remain at these low levels in the coming weeks. Be aware though that when mortgage rates rise, they rise quickly, as evidenced by the 0.5 percent jump in mortgage rates during the last week in May.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
Rates continue to hover near record low levels. As we saw last spring, low rates don't stick around long. Now is not the time to be complacent or to get greedy, but to take action. This likely is the last hurrah before rates start to trend up as the Fed and Treasury reduce their purchases of mortgage-backed securities, which as been holding rates down. Check in with your local mortgage professional to see how you can take advantage of this opportunity and make the most of today's low rates by buying, building or refinancing ... these rates will be ones to tell stories about many years from now!
David Kuiper, Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Rates are phenomenal at the moment and locks are warranted. The Federal Reserve announced they will taper their buying of mortgage-backed securities through the end of the first quarter. Look for rates to rise as the Fed begins to pull back. If you missed the opportunity to refinance earlier this year, now is the time for an early present from the upcoming holiday season.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Rates are too low to gamble on. Lock if you can.
Mark Madsen, mortgage consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas
If a huge auction of government debt won't drive yields higher, they'll stay near record lows awhile longer. If corporate earnings beat expectations, that could be the catalyst for higher rates.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
When rates test historic lows, it's a safe bet that they will rise.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.