Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (Sept. 10 - Sept. 16) the experts say: There's no consensus on where rates are headed. This week, 38 of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. The same percentage believes rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). About one-quarter of the panelists think rates will fall.
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
The daily stochastic tech turned bearing last Friday. This should indicate higher Treasury yields and mortgage rates for 15 to 20 days from then. The weekly remains bullish so we should see another bottom around Oct. 20. I doubt that any of these moves will be dramatic.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage - SF, San Francisco
Consumer borrowing for a broad array of credit is down substantially as benchmarked from June to August. Real unemployment may be 17 percent nationally. Just like Cash for Clunkers, consumers need to be bribed to spend money. We'll see 4 percent fixed rates within 60 days.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
Mortgage-backed securities continue to trade in a very narrow range. A continued struggling employment landscape and stock market continue to allow bonds to benefit from the uncertainty. Bond auctions continue to be well received and we'll continue to see 30-year fixed rates in the low 5s for the foreseeable future. As rates remain favorable and the first-time homebuyer tax credit is scheduled to expire, now is the perfect time to buy or build, and for many people, refinancing still is very attractive.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Consumer credit contracted $21.6 billion in July, a record amount. Combine this credit contraction with high unemployment and I just don't see how we can have the robust economic recovery many pundits are predicting. A weak economic recovery will encourage investors to continue to support Treasuries. This will help keep bond yields and mortgage rates low. Mortgage rates have dropped in recent weeks, and while I think they may go a little lower, I would be very cautious about trying to time the bottom in rates. If you like your rate, lock it in and move on with your life.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
Right now, we are unsure if the Fed is going to continue its mortgage-backed securities purchases after the first of the year. While it is anticipated that they may, no one is certain. Without the Fed's continued involvement, rates should be trending higher. Rates are very attractive right now and I have a bias toward locking. Also, locking earlier in the process could potentially save you time in the mortgage application process should rates change significantly from the time you make your initial mortgage application.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Since last week, rates have declined 0.15 percent, which is a considerable drop. (I consider anything in this range to be extra cheap.) There are too many indications that a bull flattening trend is about to shock the Treasury curve, which would make short-term rates higher and long-term rates lower. But still, that does not necessarily translate into lower mortgage rates. We could go so far as to expect wider spreads (between note rates and 10-year Treasuries) as the curve flattens. This means that although Treasuries may decline, note rates won't decline at the same rate to consumers.
Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C.
I'm anticipating mortgage rates to remain low due to the stability in the bond market.
Mark Madsen, mortgage consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas
Absent clear positive or negative economic news, rates drift lower into fall.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
Mortgage rates will rebound a bit after the recent declines, but not much.
Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
The Fed has mortgage rates where it wants 'em. And the poor employment situation balances default risk to keep rates relatively steady.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.