Mortgage Rate Trend Index

Panel prediction

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.

This week (Aug. 13 - Aug. 19) the experts say: Rates will go down or remain about the same. 39 of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 38 percent think rates will fall. The rest believe rates will rise.

Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
Experts' commentsPanel
The techs are complicated as I write this but are still bullish. Look for lower rates in the coming week.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage - SF, San Francisco, Calif.
Fixed rates are under 5 percent again. Look for them to go lower. The next big financial bombs to go off are commercial loan defaults and pension funds that are so underfunded that employers or big government will be forced to replenish them. The stock market rally has been more about bottom-line cost cutting and less about true growth and sales increases.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
The 10-year is currently trading at 3.69 percent. The news of deflation and increases in productivity have brought down the inflation component. The end of Fed meeting today will probably signal that they have no intention of raising rates for some time to come easing any upward pressure on rates in the short term. As I said last week we will see rates fall slowly as we head into the 4th quarter of the year.
Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles
I believe that the optimism that the recession is over is premature. People are still losing jobs and the only reason the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent is that over 400,000 people dropped out of the work force. September and October are historically the worst month for stocks. I think we will see a stock market sell-off and a rally in bonds dropping mortgage rates.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
Rates may go up and then come back down, but things are still too volatile in the bond markets right now for me to make a more accurate estimate about where rates are headed in the next 30 to 45 days. Even though the Fed suggests that economic activity is leveling out, job losses and the significant decrease in real estate values may ultimately contribute to a lack of confidence by consumers in the near future.
Mark Madsen, mortgage consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas
We have an interesting debate between those that think the economy is improving driving higher stock prices and higher interest rates and those that believe a correction is in order bringing both back down. Housing led us into this recession and it will need to recover to lead us out. Second quarter home sales price declines accelerated forcing more people "underwater" as their home is now worth less than they owe. The trend of price declines and underwater borrowers is expected to continue. I think the tug of war on optimism and reality should keep rates in check overall but rate volatility day to day.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Near-term strength in the U.S. dollar eases mortgage rates lower.
Dan Green,, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
Bankrate's analystsPanel
The economic recovery won't come without a stumble along the way, and when it happens, we'll see lower mortgage rates. But not yet.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst,
There hasn't been much week-to-week volatility in rates, and I expect it to stay that way until the Fed and Treasury decide to let rates float higher.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter,

About the Rate Trend Index surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.


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