Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For Aug. 6-12, 2020

5 min read
Rate trend index
In the week ahead (Aug. 6-12), 64 percent of the experts on Bankrate's panel predict rates will fall, while 21 percent think they'll rise and 14 percent expect rates to hold steady. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

The 10-year took a beating this week, and if it stays low, so will mortgage rates.

— Ralph McLaughlin

21% say rates will go up

Greg McBride photo

Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst,

Just how much momentum has been lost in the job recovery (please don’t call it ‘job growth’) is the looming question, but bond yields and mortgage rates could get a bump when another coronavirus relief package is passed.

James Sahnger photo

James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, Florida

Except for a couple of weeks, rates have been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year. While rates may drift a little further from here, the market looks a little tired and may pull back a bit. The first week of each month is full of economic data hot spots, including the employment report. The ADP National Employment Report was released Wednesday, and the number missed expectations by nearly 1.5 million. Fed Chair Powell stated last week the nailing the employment numbers is humbling the best and brightest alike. We shall see if the push to reopen has led to getting people back to work. If Washington fails to put another meaningful stimulus package together, all that may be moot as COVID-19 rages on and more jobs may be lost.

Shashank Shekhar photo

Shashank Shekhar

CEO, Arcus Lending Inc, San Jose, CA

Mortgage rates have set a new record low three of the last four weeks. My guess is the mortgage-backed securities rally -- which has caused the drop -- will take a momentary pause, even a movement in the reverse direction. Expect some correction this week, which will cause mortgage rates to go up.

64% say rates will go down

Dick Lepre photo

Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., San Francisco

The weekly tech, which is an indicator of rates over the next month, is the most bullish (higher Treasury prices, lower yields) it has been since the start of the year. Best estimate is a few days of lower yields, then flattening by Aug. 10 as the daily tech turns bearish. The Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report (out Aug. 7) is, in normal times, the fundamental with the greatest potential to move markets. But we are not in normal times. Jobs are being affected by the pandemic and also by the CARES Act, which may be discouraging some from returning to work. Jobs data has been wild in the last 3 months.

Gordon Miller photo

Gordon Miller

Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina

Rates should head lower as the 10-year Treasury now struggles to maintain a yield above 0.5. The key moving forward for homeowners will be the amount of closing costs. A lot of pretty rates are being advertised, but an APR might be the worst way to alert a potential borrower of the costs involved. Averaging the costs over the term of 30 years makes it sound more attractive, but if the APR was calculated on the actual life of the loan itself then the rate could average out over 5 percent!

Les  Parker photo

Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Trevose, Pennsylvania

Here's a parody based on Miley Cyrus' 2013 hit "Wrecking Ball." "Fed came in like a wrecking ball; Fed never hit so hard with DOVE; All Fed wanted was to break our walls; All they ever did was wreck bids; Yeah, Jay, Jay wrecks bids." With good intentions, the Federal Reserve tries to heal the broken mortgage market and keep the relationships with other investments stable, but like restoring toxic lovers, the effort destroys others.

Ken H. Johnson photo

Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Down slightly. Freddie Mac reported average 30-year rates of 2.99 percent for this past week. Ten-year Treasurys remain below the six-handle. Mortgage rates should continue to fall ever so slightly.

Jennifer Kouchis photo

Jennifer Kouchis

Senior vice president, real estate lending, VyStar Credit Union, Jacksonville, Florida

Rates have made some slight moves this past week, but it’s the Treasury yields that keep pushing lower. At some point these record lows will stop, but it’s hard to tell when. With no substantial updates in the news with regard to the pandemic and low Treasury yields, we may see yet another record low!

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA photo

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA

CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, New York, NY

Rates will be down.

Ralph McLaughlin photo

Ralph McLaughlin

Chief economist and senior vice president of analytics, Haus

Down down down! The 10-year took a beating this week, and if it stays low, so will mortgage rates.

Robert Brusca photo

Robert Brusca

Chief economist, Facts and Opinions Economics, New York

Rates will fall.

Derek Egeberg photo

Derek Egeberg

Certified mortgage planning specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Arizona

The summer slide along with the election cycle have already begun to pressure rates even lower.

14% say unchanged

Logan Mohtashami photo

Logan Mohtashami

Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California

As Congress lags on getting a deal done, the 10-year yield had drifted lower in recent days, currently at 0.55 percnet. The talks have taken a bit longer than I thought, but of course, something will get done. Bonds yields should rise if the deal is good. ADP report shows job growth missed severely. We all know the second surge in cases has impacted the velocity of the recovery, but still, we are heading in the right direction. Jobs Friday is coming up, and we have a trade war tap dance date of Aug. 15, when they will continue their tap dance around a phase 1 deal. Keep an eye out on the dollar amount of the disaster relief when announced that should be able to move the bond market, which has been very stable up until this last round of disaster relief.

Jeff Lazerson photo

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Mortgage rates will flatline, staying under 3 percent for a 30-year and under 2 percent for a 15-year fixed. Too much business volume, and lenders are getting more worried about early payoffs where borrowers become serial refinancers in a short time period. Lenders lose a lot of income in those cases and they have to reimburse upstream investors for money advanced in the case of no-cost and no-point mortgages.