In the week ahead (Jan. 23-29), none of the experts predict rates will rise, 31 of the experts think rates will fall, and 69 percent predict rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate’s mortgage calculator.
Read the comments and rate predictions of mortgagesch experts and Bankrate analysts below.
0% say rates will go up
None of the experts think rates will rise.
31% say rates will go down
Robert A. Brusca
Fact and Opinion Economics, New York
Rates will drop.
Nancy Vanden Houten, CFA
Senior research analyst,
Stone and McCarthy Research Associates, New York
Rates will move down.
Senior loan adviser, RPM Mortgage, Alamo, Calif.
While the short-term techs of the 30-year Treasury bond futures are mixed, what’s important is that the weekly tech has just upcrossed to bullish (higher prices, lower yields) for the next 2 to 3 months.
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economics, Holland, Pennsylvania
Rates will fall. There’s some uncertainty about 2020 setting in.
69% say rates will remain the same
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland
Mortgage rates over the last month have been remarkably stable. Flat to (slightly) improving has been the trend. Economic reports don’t seem to move bond markets lately. For example, today’s strong existing home sales report had no reaction in the bond market, when normally a good report like this would have pushed rates higher. The good news is that rates are holding at 3-month lows and very close to last year’s best levels. I’m not sure what it will take to break this flat pattern, but someday there will be a breakout to higher or lower levels. For now, I expect more of the same and for rates to hold steady in the coming week.
Mortgage reporter, Bankrate.com
Rates will remain stable next week, but if mortgage applications continue to rise we might see an uptick next month.
Greg McBride, CFA
Senior vice president and chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Steady as she goes with slow economic growth, low inflation, and some settling down of geopolitical concerns.
Senior loan officer, AMC Lending Group, Irvine, California
Even though the stock market is at all-time highs, the bond market doesn’t believe in the higher rate of the growth story. We also have cautionary headlines such as Boeing delays and now the coronavirus, to which some people believe this might hinder some growth. The 10-year yield is at 1.77 percent and we still haven’t broken that key 1.94 percent level. Regarding the Fed, the market believes the Fed is really out of the picture while growth is stalling. The bond market will get ahead of any Fed action in the future so, for now, Fed meetings don’t have the same importance as they did last year.
Americana Mortgage Group, Manhasset, New York
Rates are flat.
Loan officer, Macoy Capital Partners, Los Angeles
Rates will remain unchanged. The 10-year is trading at 1.828 percent and last week it was trading at 1.823 percent, which is only a difference of .005 percent. I think we will see more of the same (consistent rates) for the coming weeks and likely through the end of January. It is typical in January to see a fairly stable and quiet market as everyone waits for final figures from the previous year. I am sure it will get more exciting as we move along in this election year.
Managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, FL
Mortgage Rates will go nowhere. Here’s a parody based on the 2011 hit from Toby Keith “Red Solo Cup.” “Red solo cough, Stocks fear you’re up; They fear no party; They fear no party.” The market expected an economic boom from the Lunar New Year. Like the SARS scare, coronavirus spooks global markets enough to temporarily outset the recent giddy action in US stocks. Look for mortgages to find calm.
Certified mortgage planning specialist, AmCap Home Loans, Plano, Texas
Rates will be unchanged. Mortgage rates have improved over the past few weeks and reached the best levels since early October. Looking at the charts today, mortgage bonds continue to maintain this positive position considering all the good news: strong consumer demand, rising home sales, good corporate earnings reports and positive global economic data. Several times over the past two weeks, bonds have beat against a multi-year high ceiling of resistance but, instead of busting through, have retreated. Even the China virus scare wasn’t enough to power through this level. Next week, the Fed meets and there is zero expectation for a change to the federal funds rate. There are some important inflation reports coming next week that could possibly move the market. For now, I anticipate mortgage bonds will continue to move sideways keeping rates relatively unchanged.
Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation Jupiter, FL
The markets have already had several things tossed its way this year, including the trade deal with China, the impeachment hearing this week, Iran and now the possibility of an outbreak of a coronavirus. Uncertainty that can stress the markets normally directs money into bonds and away from equities causing rates to fall. While we have seen this to a degree in the Treasuries market, the impact has not been as dramatic in the mortgage markets.
Next week, we see the first meeting of the Federal Reserve and this meeting shouldn’t bring much action that will sway the markets. A lot of the concern about the economy (that prompted the three rate cuts we saw last year ) hasn’t come around. When there was a lot of recession talk following the yield curve inversion, the economy continued to plow on and the stock markets just kept on going higher. While the discussion on the direction of interest rates should remain on track from the last meeting, there are some new voters that will be heard. But, on the hawkish or dovish side of things, the tables still look to be even.
Arcus Lending, San Jose, California
Mortgage Rates will remain the same. The next few days are very light on any major economic news that can have a significant impact on mortgage bonds yield. The market might be a little concerned about the spread of coronavirus in China and the impeachment hearings in the Senate, but so far the bond has moved sideways. The trend should continue this week and the mortgage rates could remain unchanged.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate’s panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.