Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for March 28 - April 3, 2024
Go up | 14% |
---|---|
Stay the same | 57% |
Go down | 29% |
Expect mortgage rates to hold steady in the coming week, says the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.Of those polled, 57 percent of respondents predict rates will stay the same over the next week. Just 14 percent predict rates will rise, and 29 percent expect rates to drop.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.01 percent as of March 27, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, down slightly from last week’s average of 7.07.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of March 28 - April 3, 2024
Go up | 14% |
---|---|
Stay the same | 57% |
Go down | 29% |
As long as there is no unexpected data in the GDP or personal income/outlay numbers, rates will stay boringly flat.
— Dick Lepre
Cross Country Mortgage
14% say rates will go up
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Higher. Following the Fed’s decision to hold steady, rates rose slightly. With news related to the economy signaling mixed results, it’s not yet clear that the U.S. economy is or is not headed for recession. With all the uncertainty about the U.S. economy, the current geopolitical instability and concerning signals regarding consumers’ ability to meet financial obligations, I expect rates to rise.
29% say rates will go down
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I’m looking for rates to drift a bit lower in the week ahead, with traders reacting to the PCE inflation data that Chair Powell predicted would be in line at his post-FOMC press conference.
Dan Green
CEO, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , Ohio
Historically, April is a hit-or-miss month for mortgage rates. This year, it's a hit. Mortgage rates [will] drop.
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
A modest pullback in rates [is] on tap as long as inflation doesn’t come in higher than expected.
James Sahnger
Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , Florida
The 10-year Treasury peaked in March at 4.34 percent and since has retreated to 4.19 percent. [The] belief is that rates could continue to drift lower in high expectations of Friday’s PCE being a non-event. Follow that with next week's employment report and we may have entered into a path where rates improve slightly from where we are now.
57% say unchanged–
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , Maryland
With a lack of market-moving economic data and [a] shortened holiday week, bonds have been mostly flat to slightly stronger. Rates are similarly flat to slightly lower this week. We may have to wait for next week’s Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday the fifth to determine the next big move in mortgage rates. Because of this I think mortgage rates will be mostly unchanged in the coming week.
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates are likely to remain unchanged this week. Economic data this week has been mixed with durable-goods orders stronger than expected, but consumer confidence came in below market expectations. The Fed’s favored inflation index is due out, but with the holiday-shortened trading week, market reactions are not likely to occur until next week.
Derek Egeberg
Branch Manager, Guild Mortgage , Yuma , Arizona
The stagnated rate fluctuations will continue until the Q1 report is released detailing consumer credit card balance totals in mid-April. All eyes are now on how much the average consumer has bought on credit cards and if the Fed must raise rates further to slow spending.
Dick Lepre
Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. As long as there is no unexpected data in the GDP or personal income/outlay numbers, rates will stay boringly flat.
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania
Flat — [we] need more growth data, which [has] been pointing to continued above-goal inflation.
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates [will] hold steady. Here's a parody of "I Can See Clearly Now," Johnny Nash's 1972 hit. "Rates can see clearly now, the move is gone. They can see all obstacles in their way." Nothing appears to disrupt contentment for the week except thin market conditions or the unforeseen.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY
Unchanged.