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Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed over the next week.
This week (Dec. 2-8), a solid majority of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so; 14 percent think rates will fall; and 22 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Click on the three tabs above to read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts. Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
More evidence of respectable job growth in Friday’s employment report will keep pushing rates higher, barring a European contagion.
Holden Lewis Mortgage editor, Bankrate.com
Investors (including the Fed) have an appetite for U.S. Treasuries, but less so for mortgage bonds. Mortgage rates might rise even as Treasury yields fall.
Michael Becker Mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
As I write this, it seems the risk trade is back on with the stock market up over 2 percent and bonds selling off, resulting in higher yields. For now, positive manufacturing news from China and stronger employment data in the U.S. are trumping the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. This trend may continue over the next week and because of it, I expect mortgage rates to rise.
David Kuiper Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Mortgage bonds are in a free fall and as such, we’ve seen interest rates edging up. Improving consumer confidence and employment data, in addition to a stabilizing international stage, have begun to eliminate bonds (where mortgages are priced from) as the necessary safe haven during uncertain economic times.
Steven Levitt Vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago
With the labor numbers to show better-than-expected forecasted numbers along with an increase in production numbers overseas, we will continue to see rates rise in the next week.
Bob Moulton President, Americana Mortgage Group, Manhasset, N.Y.
Rates are on the rise.
Jim Sahnger Mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
While I believe there is room for rates to improve from present levels, current investor sentiment is to push rates higher. Nonfarm payroll and unemployment numbers are the next big number that investors will be watching following an improved picture from ADP.
If you are looking to refinance and capture a great rate, do not wait. The potential for lower home values from appraisals and higher rates are not a favorable combination for unlocking your money from higher rates.
Traders are back to looking at fundamentals. Spreads between 10-year Treasury debt and mortgage rates have started to widen again. That will place pressure on mortgage rates to decline, but they will be slow to react. Since Nov. 15, that spread has widened from 155 basis points to 180 basis points. Directionally, these two have been trading in an opposite manner and that simply can’t be sustained for long.
Dan Green Waterstone Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
It’s a global economy. Euro-contagion concerns boost safe-haven buying.
Kevin Breeland General manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
European debt worries will continue for some time. Although progress was made concerning Ireland, problems in Spain, Portugal and Italy still remain. Economic information has been a mixed bag. However, inflation does not appear to be taking a back seat for much longer. Again, while it will be a roller-coaster ride for one more week, I will continue with no changes for rates for the next seven days.
Dick Lepre Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
The technicals show a mixed picture. The daily stochastic is bullish but pattern-constrained. There seems to be technical resistance keeping the 10-year above 2.75 percent. Contagion fears regarding EU debt are about all that Treasuries have going for them.
John Walsh President, Total Mortgage Services, Milford, Conn.
I believe rates will remain steady over the coming week.