Hot for a hybrid? 9 things to consider |
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And, even if an owner gets 80,000 trouble-free miles
from a hybrid, what will happen at trade-in time? How attractive
will a used Prius, for example, be with 80,000 miles on the odometer
and the original battery back still on board?
One small sign of problems may have already appeared.
The federal government has opened an investigation into reports
that about three dozen 2004-2005 Toyota Prius sedans have had their
gasoline engine stall at highway speeds. No injuries were reported
and no recall has been ordered.
Two good sources of information about hybrids can
be found at Fueleconomy.gov,
which is an EPA site, or at Hybridcars.com,
which is an enthusiast site.
Are hybrids a good buy?
Based solely on the price of a gallon of gasoline, it makes no economic
sense to buy a hybrid in comparison to the same vehicle with a gasoline-only
engine.
Look at it this way: A Honda Civic Hybrid with a manual
transmission carries a sticker price of $20,415. A comparable Honda
Civic EX lists for $18,025. That puts the price difference between
the two at $2,390.
Using the EPA fuel-mileage numbers, the Civic Hybrid
should get, a combined city/highway, 47 mpg. The gasoline-only Civic
should get 34 mpg, for a difference of 13 mpg.
Assume you drive 15,000 miles a year. The gasoline-only
vehicle will consume 441 gallons in that distance (15,000 miles
divided by 34 mpg is about 441). The hybrid will eat up 319 gallons
(15,000 miles divided by 47 is about 319). The difference of 122
gallons, costing $2.50 per gallon, means the hybrid will save you
$305 a year.
A sticker price differential of $2,390 means it would
take almost eight years to break even ($2,390 divided by $305 is
7.8 years). Even if the cost of gasoline goes to $5 a gallon, the
122 gallon difference would save you $610 and it would still take
almost four years ($2,390 divided by $610 is 3.9 years) to recoup
the extra cost of the hybrid.
And that's a rosy scenario. The real-world numbers
right now are even worse, because you can get a better discount
off the list price on a gasoline-only Civic, while the Civic Hybrid
is commanding near-list price.
What about tax incentives on
hybrids?
True, tax breaks will offset some of the higher costs of a hybrid
and reduce the time it would take to break even, but not by much.
If you buy one in 2005, the federal government allows
a one-time $2,000 tax deduction, which would mean about $500 in
the pocket of someone who's in the 25-percent tax bracket.
The highway bill passed recently, by Congress, changes
the rules for hybrid vehicles bought between 2006 and 2010. Instead
of a deduction, there would be a one-time tax credit of between
$250 and $3,400, with the amount based on how fuel-efficient the
vehicle is compared to a standard set in the law.
Further complicating matters is language in the bill
that limits the tax breaks to only so many hybrids per manufacturer,
which could benefit U.S. manufacturers just getting started selling
hybrids and mean that the plentiful Toyota hybrids may not qualify
after 2007.
Some states, particularly California, are offering
their own incentives for going hybrid, including the right to cruise
the carpool lane. But, as with the federal tax break, those free
passes are limited in number, so latecomers to the hybrid revolution
could be shut out.
What's the bottom line?
There are some good reasons to buy a hybrid vehicle. It can be less
harmful to the environment, and as more people buy hybrids that
will encourage manufacturers to further expand the technology which
in time will bring down the cost.
It's also impressive technology, and some of the hybrid
vehicles are fun to drive. The Prius also has the added, though
subjective, benefit of cutting-edge sedan styling.
For performance junkies, some hybrids offer the added
thrill of faster acceleration than their gasoline-only counterparts.
But if the dollars and cents of car ownership are
your guiding principle, the hybrid revolution has not reached the
point where it makes financial sense.
Terry Jackson is the author of six
automotive books and has been writing about cars for 25 years. He
is the former editor-in-chief of AMI Auto World Magazine and NOPI
Street Performance Compact. He has also written for Automobile,
Road & Track and AutoWeek. He evaluates as many as 100 new cars
each year.
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