Rate Trend Index
By Bankrate.com

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.

This week (July 2 - July 8) the experts say: Rates are about equally as likely to go down as remain unchanged.

July 2 - July 8 This week, almost half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will fall over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 8 percent think rates will rise, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). Panel: Up: 8% Down: 46% Unchanged: 46%   Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts Experts' comments Panel Slightly improving. Barry Habib, CEO, Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J. down This is one of those weeks when I hate the way this survey works. The short-term (daily) tech is now bearish, but the weekly is bullish. It is the weekly cycle lasting about 10 weeks, which is of greatest interest here, but the daily is overbought and turning bearish, so it will likely be another two weeks before we see rates start moving down, actualizing the weekly bull cycle. Wow, I sound like a politician. Let's try this: Four weeks from now, Treasury yields and mortgage rates should be lower. Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco down We expect 30-year, fixed-mortgage rates (assuming 1 point) to maintain levels between 5.25 and 5.60 percent until mid-September (prior to the close of the fiscal year Sept. 30). Making bold predictions regarding rates is always subject to flaws, so we recognize simply that rates even at these levels are low and are expected to remain low. The point being we are less concerned about rates today than we are about home prices. Affordability is based on price and rate, although today we are more focused on price as delinquency levels continue to grow month over month. Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C. unchanged Markets unwind their inflation fears. Slowly. Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati down Mortgage-backed securities seem to be firmly entrenched at this time, and I do not see significant movement. Additional weak employment data will allow rates to remain low and perhaps even improve slightly, but the recent hiring for the Census may temporarily skew the numbers a bit. In the big picture of life, interest rates remain very attractive, especially for first-time buyers, for whom the clock is ticking on the first-time buyer tax credit. David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. unchanged Quicksand perfectly describes how we continue to sink into lower property values and mounting mortgage defaults. The Capitol Hill mantra needs to be, "It's the interest rates," leaving the "stupid" part out. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner need to buy Treasuries until the quicksand dries. Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif. down In the near term, I think mortgage rates will be flat, given how much they have dropped in the last two weeks. Looking further out, I expect the economy to show further weakness due to rising unemployment and a weak consumer. That should keep rates low and perhaps cause them to drop further. If you are closing a loan in the next seven to 20 days, I would lock your rate in now. If you are closing in 20 to 60 days, I would float your rate. Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md. unchanged The 10-year Treasury is trading at 3.55 percent after bumping up to 4.0 percent. The inflation portion is down to 1.78 percent, and consumer confidence took a hit this week as well. It seems that the hope of a recovery in the third or fourth quarter of 2009 is fading, and the reality of a drawn-out recovery is coming into view. Bad economic news, including unemployment and foreclosures, continue to drag down the market. Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles down While my natural inclination is to believe that rates should scoot higher based on my prior comments, recent reports have indicated that the Fed has picked up 85 percent of agency issuance since March. At that rate, the Fed can keep rates in check. Watch out, though, when the party stops at year end. Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. unchanged Bankrate's analysts Panel Mortgage rates will bob up and down as concerns alternate between economic weakness and future inflation. The conforming 30-year fixed rate will fluctuate between 5.25 percent and 6 percent. Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com down The federal government is buying about 80 percent of new conforming mortgages, which means that the feds can dictate rates. And if that's the case, then this must be where they want rates to be. Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com unchanged

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.