Mortgage Rate Trend Index
By Bankrate.com

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (Nov. 20 - Nov. 26) the experts say: Rising rates are just as likely as falling rates.

Nov. 20 - Nov. 26 This week, about one-quarter of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next 35 to 45 days. The rest are evenly split among those who predict that rates will rise, and those who think rates will fall. Panel: Up: 38% Down: 38% Unchanged: 24%   Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts Experts' comments Panel Huge deflationary pressures are on us from credit gridlock to rapidly increasing unemployment. Inventory levels of unsold properties are mounting. Mortgage rates as well as the prime rate will drop as incentives for credit-worthy borrowers to buy homes. Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif. down Economic information continues to provide good news for bonds as the economy unfortunately continues to struggle. However, increased supply from Washington and continued turmoil in housing and mortgage defaults should keep rates in check overall. Interest-rate volatility will present an opportunity to lock a great rate, though, for consumers working with "plugged in" mortgage professionals before now and the end of the year. Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. unchanged With decreasing PPI, higher unemployment, dropping retail sales and pressure on stocks, we should see mortgage bonds as the beneficiary in the near term. In addition, continued focus on stabilizing the housing market and decreasing new home starts should help rates as well. David Kuiper, Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. down With most manufacturing indexes all pointing toward a downward revision in their capacity and their production output, it's clear equities are going to be forced down. As equities decline, expect bonds to rally and mortgage rates to continue to fall, helping borrowers. This sounds like good news, but the larger concern will be the impact this has on unemployment and continued downward pressure on wages, which are both fundamental to the recovery. Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C. down Higher, but not by a great degree, if at all. The story isn't going to change appreciably until the government really puts the bailout money on the street. Traders, lenders and even homeowners are wanting to know how -- and if -- the bailout will play out before they make serious moves. Investors in real estate, however, would be wise to strike now. Dan Dowling, senior mortgage adviser/president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla. up With inflationary indicators rising, but unemployment increasing, along with business and consumer confidence in the red, we will continue to see a volatile, unstable and unpredictable swing in rates, leaving them unchanged. Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago unchanged Market fears shift from inflation to deflation. Rates rise. Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati up I feel obligated to be more serious this week. Here goes my attempt. I have been forecasting mortgage rates for years based on 1) economic fundamentals and 2) technicals. The economic fundamentals boil down to the new perception of inflation. The techs are week-to-week and month-to-month variations which are of value as long as the markets are relatively quiet. The markets are not quiet lately, making the techs less useful. While the techs are neutral and the fundamentals are anything but inflationary, I still see little hope for lower rates. The issue I have is that what we are looking at now is neither fundamentals nor techs but the underlying lack of confidence in mortgage debt as a fixed income asset. As more government debt here and abroad increases the supply, the demand for mortgages and fixed income assets is likely to wane so I see the general trend as higher rates. More supply plus lower or flat demand make for lower prices which translate to higher yields and mortgage rates. Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco up Bankrate's analysts Panel After the extreme volatility in mortgage rates over the last several weeks, things have settled down. The focus on the weak economy and signs of improvement in the credit markets should push rates a bit lower. Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com down Recession and falling prices push mortgage rates downward. Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com down

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.