Mortgage Rate Trend Index
By Bankrate.com

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (July 24 - July 30) the experts say: Mortgage rates still have a ways to go up.

July 17 - July 23 This week, 70 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. The rest are evenly split among those who think rates will fall and those who believe will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). Panel: Up: 50% Down: 31% Unchanged: 19%   Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts Experts' comments Panel The recent rally in stocks, drop in oil prices and additional threats of inflation are drawing money out of bonds. As bond prices decrease, mortgage interest rates rise. We've seen this play out over the last week. David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. up As discussed in past weeks, the bear market rally has caused rapid deterioration in bond prices. The President's anticipated signing of the GSE bailout bill may temporarily buoy bond prices and lower rates in the short term. Dan Dowling, senior mortgage adviser/president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla. up Mortgage bonds are sitting at the worst price levels of 2008, so as long as the economic news ahead isn't too inflation-laden, bonds and home loan rates should see some improvement from current levels. Sue Woodard, loan consultant, CTX Mortgage, Minneapolis down Rates have settled and will be looking at Fed action for future direction. That will probably mean rate hikes beginning as early as August to combat inflation. Until that time, I seeing us remaining unchanged. Chris Sipe, loan officer, America East Mortgage, Frederick, Md. unchanged Rates will spread over a large range, but the monthly trend should be flat. Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati unchanged It is difficult to make just one prediction about what rates will do 35 to 45 days from now. We should see rates dip a bit just at or after the end of this month and have a rally lasting as much as a week. So my call for "lower" is for the end of this month. After that one week break we will give up the gains in Treasury prices. Underlying all of this is the FHLMC/FNMA (Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae) situation which overwhelms all else. Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco down Rates in the past seven days have risen more than 35 basis points after taking more than 30 days to decline as much. This example clearly depicts a trend in the market that allows rates to increase rapidly but is cautiously slow to bring rates down. Regardless of your thoughts on the direction of rates, recognize that when rates do increase they will increase fast and when they decline, it will take time. The new "covered bond" market proposal may in fact bring rates down if legislation can be adopted in a timely manner. Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C. unchanged Equity markets have improved, stocks have been trading higher and inflationary reports are putting a lot of pressure on the mortgage backed securities, which leads to an increase in rates. Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago up Rates will continue to get punished in the face of inflationary news. The bright spot to be seen from this is that we are approaching two year interest rate highs that were unable to hold extended firm ground from the beginning of June through mid- to late July last year. Should we revisit those levels, with good fortune; the window will be as narrow as was seen last year. The best thing that could occur would actually be for the Fed to start hiking rates. Jim Sahnger, Mortgage Consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. up Bankrate's analysts Panel Mortgage investors face the risks of higher inflation and rising defaults. Both of these problems put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com up Inflation worries will persist. But now that rates have spiked higher, concerns about economic weakness will produce some dips in mortgage rates. Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com down

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.