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"If you look out a few years from now, you're going to see more and more students getting online degrees, or trying
to get online credit to reduce the costs of their 'brick-and-mortar' education," says Joe Hurley, Bankrate's
College Money Guru.
Together, these factors are upping the level of competition in higher education, and if there's any iron-clad rule
of economics, it's that, all things being equal, a higher level of competition breeds lower prices for consumers. This may hold true even
among colleges and universities, many of which have always considered themselves somewhat above the fray of market economics.
Private loan credit crunch
Another factor to consider -- one that you're probably sick of hearing about by now -- is the credit crunch. While student loan seekers
aren't in dire straits yet, the global credit freeze is having an effect on all student loans, especially private student loans, the
kind not guaranteed by the federal government.
The College Board reports that 22 percent of the loans taken out for the 2006-2007 school year were private
loans. This industry has been hit hard by the problems in the credit markets. The nation's largest insurer of private student loans, The
Education Resources Institute Inc., known as TERI, filed for bankruptcy
protection in early April. According to FinAid.org, 21 different lenders have gotten
out of the private student loan business since August 2007. Many banks that make private student loans are pulling out of the market for
two-year colleges. These banks simply don't want to make what they consider unprofitable loans.
The drying up of private student loans means that students and their families looking to take out loans in excess of what
the feds will guarantee for Stafford and Perkins loans may have a tougher
time getting that money. Compounding this reduction in buying power will be the recent decline in the availability of home equity lines of
credit and credit cards. Diminished access to credit will force those shopping for colleges to be more motivated by price when selecting
which schools they will apply to. With a shrinking pool of students who can afford their tuition, many colleges will be forced to either offer more
aid or cut tuition to fill their classrooms.
"The only impact the credit crunch could have on tuition would be to reduce it. It means there will be more and more people
who will find it hard to finance going to college," says Vedder. "Therefore, they'll be more and more sensitive to prices of colleges than
they would otherwise be. Colleges will have to be more careful about raising prices in order to entice students. I don't expect this to be
earth-shaking, but there might be some modest impact on the rate of tuition increases."
Government assistance
Last but not least, never underestimate the power of Washington, D.C., grandstanding to turn into action overnight. Indeed, President Bush
signed into law a sweeping financial aid bill in September 2007 that featured significant changes to federally guaranteed loan programs and
financial aid. Democrats, who have made higher education funding a priority, have plans in the works to pressure colleges and universities
to cut costs by imposing stringent reporting requirements on real world college tuition costs, and even forcing schools with large endowments
to use that money for cutting tuition.
"Congress is threatening to force universities to spend their endowments, and (recent financial aid programs) are a way to
get Congress off their backs," says Tornow.
"The pushback (on rising tuition) is growing both politically and otherwise," says Lederman.
In the end, it's anyone's guess whether the confluence of these trends will actually lead to real change in college pricing.
But one thing is certain: Every year of college tuition hikes means more young men and women priced out of higher education -- and the higher
standard of living that goes with it.
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