Each week, Bankrate.com surveys mortgage experts to
gauge the state of mortgage rates over the next 30 to 45 days: Will rates rise,
fall or remain relatively unchanged?
This week (Nov. 30 - Dec. 6) the experts say:
Don't rush to lock. There's not a strong consensus, but the plurality say
rates won't change much.
PANEL:
Down: 33%
Up:
23%
Unchanged:
44%
This week, almost half of the panelists believe mortgage
rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points)
over the next 35 to 45 days. A third think rates will fall over that
period, and about one-quarter believe rates will rise.
"Long-term
mortgage rates have been range-bound for three months. We're at
the bottom of that range and, given that we've bounced higher each
time we've touched the bottom of the range, it's likely that long-term
rates will have a tough time going lower. Rates should continue
to behave, but, with rates at the lows for the year and the reality
of an ever-inverting yield curve, it appears long-term rates are
priced for perfection, and any surprise would likely move rates
higher." -- Bob Walters, chief economist, Quicken Loans/Rock
Financial, Livonia, Mich. RATE
VOTE: Up
"Last week the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.57
percent and Tuesday it closed at 4.51 percent. This is not a big change
in rates, but emotionally the 4.5 percent mark, which I have been
discussing each week, is very significant. The lower the 10-year Treasury
goes, the more inverted yield curve we have, and the more pressure
the Fed has to lower rates sooner than later. The 4.5 percent mark
is also a breaking point for bond traders and the market in general.
If we break that point and go below we will see a signifcant drop
in mortgages." -- Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage,
Los Angeles RATE
VOTE: Down
"Low mortgage
rates are energizing the housing market, and the Fed will have to
react." -- Dan Green, mortgage planner, Mobium Mortgage,
Chicago RATE
VOTE: Up
"The Fed
is in a wait-and-hold pattern. Although housing has cooled off significantly
in parts of the country the overall economy is still growing at
a modest pace and the Fed still has concerns with core inflation.
I believe rates will not move very far at the moment." -- JR Diaz, vice president, Statewide Bancorp,
Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. RATE
VOTE: Unchanged
"Let's try
to review some economic fundamentals. We have low unemployment,
low inflation and sluggish GDP growth. There continues to be uncertainty
about energy prices, but that uncertainty has diminished in the
last year. A 'natural' price for a barrel of oil is probably about
$45. On top of that we have a $10-per-barrel premium because of
instability in the Middle East. We had a $10-a-barrel Katrina premium
and a $10-a-barrel premium because of speculation. In a perverse
sense, high energy prices held inflation down because money spent
at the pump was money not spent elsewhere.
"The dynamic we will be dealing with in 2007 will likely be:
the perception that the Fed has to stimulate the economy because
GDP growth is sluggish. The housing boom slowed not because of lack
of demand but because of too much supply. Little or no concern about
inflation. Talk about the dollar is likely to remain just talk.
The dollar moves up; the dollar moves down but it is still the world
reserve currency. This is not a guarantee that it will always be
so, but it is not about to take a second chair to any other currency
in 2007.
"The stage is set for a series of Fed easings starting very
early in 2007 and, as I have said here before, I believe that we
will see a 10-year yield at or under 4 percent by mid-2007." -- Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential
Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco RATE
VOTE: Unchanged
BANKRATE'S ANALYSTS:
"Bernanke is still warning about inflation, but
the bond market only wants to see signs of a slowing economy." -- Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com RATE
VOTE: Down
"Rates keep dropping week after week as the housing sector
weakens and inventories rise for everything from trucks to condos." -- Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com RATE
VOTE: Down
About
the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking
and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and
mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the
deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions
that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end
consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers,
mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential
first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD
Rate Trend Index will be released each Wednesday. Results from Bankrate.com's
Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
