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Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for March 28 - April 3, 2024

March 27, 2024
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Expect mortgage rates to hold steady in the coming week, says the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.Of those polled, 57 percent of respondents predict rates will stay the same over the next week. Just 14 percent predict rates will rise, and 29 percent expect rates to drop.

The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.01 percent as of March 27, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, down slightly from last week’s average of 7.07.

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Rate Trend Index

Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed

Week of March 28 - April 3, 2024

Experts say rates will...

Go up 14%
Stay the same 57%
Go down 29%
Percentages might not equal 100 due to rounding.

As long as there is no unexpected data in the GDP or personal income/outlay numbers, rates will stay boringly flat.

— Dick Lepre
Cross Country Mortgage

14% say rates will go up


Robert Brusca photo

Robert Brusca

Chief economist, Facts and Opinions Economics , New York

Higher.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D. photo

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Higher. Following the Fed’s decision to hold steady, rates rose slightly. With news related to the economy signaling mixed results, it’s not yet clear that the U.S. economy is or is not headed for recession. With all the uncertainty about the U.S. economy, the current geopolitical instability and concerning signals regarding consumers’ ability to meet financial obligations, I expect rates to rise.

29% say rates will go down


Heather Devoto photo

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

I’m looking for rates to drift a bit lower in the week ahead, with traders reacting to the PCE inflation data that Chair Powell predicted would be in line at his post-FOMC press conference.

Dan Green photo

Dan Green

CEO, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , Ohio

Historically, April is a hit-or-miss month for mortgage rates. This year, it's a hit. Mortgage rates [will] drop.

Greg McBride photo

Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

A modest pullback in rates [is] on tap as long as inflation doesn’t come in higher than expected.

James Sahnger photo

James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , Florida

The 10-year Treasury peaked in March at 4.34 percent and since has retreated to 4.19 percent. [The] belief is that rates could continue to drift lower in high expectations of Friday’s PCE being a non-event. Follow that with next week's employment report and we may have entered into a path where rates improve slightly from where we are now.

57% say unchanged


Michael Becker photo

Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , Maryland

With a lack of market-moving economic data and [a] shortened holiday week, bonds have been mostly flat to slightly stronger. Rates are similarly flat to slightly lower this week. We may have to wait for next week’s Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday the fifth to determine the next big move in mortgage rates. Because of this I think mortgage rates will be mostly unchanged in the coming week.

Melissa Cohn photo

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates are likely to remain unchanged this week. Economic data this week has been mixed with durable-goods orders stronger than expected, but consumer confidence came in below market expectations. The Fed’s favored inflation index is due out, but with the holiday-shortened trading week, market reactions are not likely to occur until next week.

Derek Egeberg photo

Derek Egeberg

Branch Manager, Guild Mortgage , Yuma , Arizona

The stagnated rate fluctuations will continue until the Q1 report is released detailing consumer credit card balance totals in mid-April. All eyes are now on how much the average consumer has bought on credit cards and if the Fed must raise rates further to slow spending.

Jeff Lazerson photo

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Unchanged.

Dick Lepre photo

Dick Lepre

Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA

Trend: Flat. As long as there is no unexpected data in the GDP or personal income/outlay numbers, rates will stay boringly flat.

Joel Naroff photo

Joel Naroff

President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania

Flat — [we] need more growth data, which [has] been pointing to continued above-goal inflation.

Les Parker photo

Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida

Mortgage rates [will] hold steady. Here's a parody of "I Can See Clearly Now," Johnny Nash's 1972 hit. "Rates can see clearly now, the move is gone. They can see all obstacles in their way." Nothing appears to disrupt contentment for the week except thin market conditions or the unforeseen.

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA photo

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA

CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY

Unchanged.