Mortgage Rate Trend Index
By Bankrate.com

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (Aug. 7 - Aug. 13) the experts say: Rates look likely to increase.

Aug. 7 - Aug. 13 This week, more than two-thirds of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. About one-fifth think rates will fall, and a lonely minority believes rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). Panel: Up: 71% Down: 21% Unchanged: 8%   Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts Experts' comments Panel All eyes were on the Fed this week. The Fed is in a tough spot right now ... trying to balance economic activity (low rates) with avoiding inflation and protecting the value of the dollar (higher rates). With the Fed not taking action, money is flowing out of bonds and into stocks, causing mortgage rates to increase slightly. David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. up Freddie Mac's recently reported $821 million loss blows the theory that this is a subprime mess out of the water. While end buyers of mortgage-backed securities have always believed in the efficacy of agency paper, at some point the GSEs will have to price these losses into future rates. Still it's a grab bag as securities, equities and commodities are all under severe pressure. Dan Dowling, senior mortgage adviser/president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla. up The Fed backs off the notion of raising rates in the near future, thus inflationary concerns, despite a healthy, sustained retreat in oil prices, will drive rates higher. I would like to see the Fed begin raising the federal funds rate sooner rather than later. Chris Sipe, loan officer, America East Mortgage, Frederick, Md. up With the Fed keeping rates stable to prevent an even further decline in consumer spending, this will lead to inflationary concerns, causing rates to increase slightly. However, this is still a great time to buy, with rates being low, inventory being high, and sellers being extremely motivated. Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago up Rates should recover a bit in the weeks ahead as oil prices ease inflationary pressure. Barry Habib, CEO, Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J. down Stock markets should benefit from falling commodity prices, pulling money from the mortgage bond market. Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati up I am saying "lower" only short term as in the next week or so. This is based solely on the bullish short term tech. After that we will enter a two-week higher tech zone. More and more lenders are exiting the jumbo market and relying solely on FHLMC, FNMA and FHA. Jumbo is ugly. Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco down More than the absolute direction of rates given these volatile times, borrowers should focus on the affordability of homes, i.e., how much they can qualify for is a function of four key elements. As a borrower you should consider each of these carefully and use the tools found on mortgage lender Web sites to "ballpark" your payments based on: loan amount requested, income, credit score and the amount of debt owed. Knowing how lenders develop pricing makes you an informed borrower. Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C. up Contrarian is the right viewpoint now. Yes, there are inflation pressures. Who is spending money right now? Not too many people. Interest rates are headed for a big fall. Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif. down Lots of news coming ahead that will be both positive and negative for the money that will compete with bonds and stocks. Look for the general tug of war to continue with large swings along the way that will leave rates relatively unchanged. Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. unchanged Bankrate's analysts Panel The Fed would rather fight recession now and inflation later. That will bring higher interest rates. Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com up Expanding spreads are having a much bigger impact on mortgage rates than what happens with benchmark Treasury yields. Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com up

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.