How the Consumer Price Index works
By Laura
Bruce Bankrate.com
The Consumer Price Index gets a bad rap. The CPI
tracks the prices of a wide assortment of products and services consumers
buy, so Americans believe that by monitoring these prices they should
be able to tell how big of a role inflation is playing in the economy
and in their own financial lives.
But often when inflation is tame by government standards,
it's causing financial hardship for many individuals, who argue
that the CPI doesn't reflect what's happening in their lives.
By looking at how the CPI is put together, you may
be able to see why it can seem so out of sync with your financial
situation.
Every month, 400 "economic assistants" get
busy making phone calls and visiting individuals, stores, supermarkets,
restaurants, car repair shops, apartment complexes, hospitals and
doctor's offices. They collect the prices on 80,000 items and services,
says Patrick Jackman, an economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
the federal agency that compiles and publishes the CPI data every
month.
They gather prices for eight major groups and more
than 200 categories within those groups. Here are the eight groups
and some of the categories.
Food and beverages -- breakfast cereal,
milk, coffee, chicken, wine, snacks and full-service meals
Housing -- rent of primary residence, owner's
equivalent of rent, fuel oil and bedroom furniture
Apparel -- men's shirts and sweaters, women's
dresses, jewelry
Transportation -- new vehicles, airline fares,
gasoline, motor vehicle insurance
Medical care -- prescription drugs, medical
supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses, hospital services
Recreation -- televisions, cable TV, pets
and pet products, sports equipment, entertainment ticket admission
prices
Education and communication -- college tuition,
postage, telephone services, computer software
Other goods and services -- tobacco and smoking
products, haircuts, funeral expenses
The CPI simply measures the change in how much is
paid for these thousands of goods and services. If prices are rising
it's inflation; if they're falling it's deflation.
"But there is a problem relating that to any
individual household since it's the average of all households,"
says Jackman. "Some are renters, some are buyers and there
are different consumption situations."
For instance, if you own your home and are making
a fixed monthly mortgage payment, rising rents don't affect you.
You might keep your food budget down by eating more
chicken or pork when beef prices increase. But since the CPI measures
the same "basket" of items month after month, it doesn't
do a good job of reflecting that type of substitution that shoppers
do on a regular basis.
The CPI figure that is most widely quoted is based
on urban consumers, so if you live in a rural area it's quite possible
your costs will be different. But Jackman says there can be wide
differences even between urban areas simply because of their locations.
"The 80,000 prices are fairly representative,
but in some areas prices are markedly higher than in other areas.
Gas prices in Washington, D.C. may be average for regular gas --
about $1.75 a gallon. But go west to Las Vegas or Los Angeles, and
it may cost you $2.20."
Speaking of gas, why does the Bureau of Labor Statistics
issue two inflation rates -- one with food and gas included and
the other so-called "core" inflation rate, which eliminates
food and gas prices? After all, does a week go by where you don't
buy food or gas?
Food and energy costs can fluctuate widely from month
to month and the CPI is looking for inflationary trends -- sustained
increases in prices. But since you probably can't eliminate food
and gas prices from your budget, you should pay attention to the
overall CPI number, not the core rate of inflation.
"There are three pricing periods every month.
You don't want to collect all your food prices in the beginning
of the month," says Jackman. "You want a sample that's
representative of the U.S. as a whole. The food and energy items
are collected on a monthly basis, but most items, such as apparel,
are collected bimonthly, except in the three largest metropolitan
areas -- New York, Los Angeles and Chicago -- where everything is
priced on a monthly basis."
As you might imagine, it takes some time to process
all the information. Nevertheless, there's a pretty quick turnaround.
Data collected in April, for example, is released to the public
in mid-May.
Tracking prices throughout the United States is a
daunting task and no one is more aware of the criticism of the CPI
than the folks at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, including Jackman.
"I think we're in the middle of things.
You have individual households and most people are relatively myopic
(on this subject.) They end up remembering those prices that were
low before and are high now and not remembering the ones that were
high and have steadied or declined or risen slowly. They say their
particular experience isn't being reflected by the CPI; the prices
they are facing are much higher. Well, in some cases they might
be, but they're not tracking them over a long period of time."
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