Mortgage Rate Trend Index
By Bankrate.com

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (July 3 - July 9) the experts say: Mortgage rates probably will fall or stay around the same.

July 3 - July 9 This week, only one-fifth of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Another two-fifths think rates will fall, and a little over a third believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). Panel: Up: 21% Down: 43% Unchanged: 36%   Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts Experts' comments Panel Assuming that the Fed continues to hint at getting proactive with fighting inflation ... a rate hike by the Fed in August to fight inflation would help mortgage-backed securities and home loan rates improve. Sue Woodard, loan consultant, CTX Mortgage, Minneapolis down Stocks are under pressure and investors are moving their money to the safety of bonds. As bond prices rise, mortgage interest rates decrease. This is being tempered slightly by a better-than-expected ISM report, which signals some growth in the manufacturing sector. David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. down Bonds are looking to, once again, trade in a range. There will be some cyclical range movement, but it's going to take some serious economic data to bust out of this range. This does not mean borrowers should be lax about locking rates, as markets could turn on a dime. Dan Dowling, senior mortgage adviser/president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla. unchanged With the cost of energy soaring, consumers are being pinched at every corner, which means inflation is still a major concern. Combine that with positive news from the manufacturing sector (ISM and Chicago PMI reports both coming in better than expected) to help push the Dow higher at the expense of bonds. Ryan Kennelly, mortgage banker, Indymac Bank, Bedford, N.H. up Inflation, the predominant concern that has been driving rates higher, is already considered in the forward mortgage rates. Expect rates to flatten unless inflation gets worse. Borrowers should carefully consider the impact of mortgage rate increases versus home price decreases -- the offset can still be beneficial today for borrowers in terms of the monthly borrowing cost in dollars. As rates increase, each incremental jump in rates has less influence against a decline in home prices. Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C. unchanged So long as growth stays steady, money should flow into the mortgage bond market. This drops rates. Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati down We should be getting a brief (a few days, a few weeks) dip in mortgage rates as Treasury yields are short-term technically bullish (higher prices, lower yields). The longer trend is still bearish -- higher yields and rates. One underlying concern is when jumbo mortgage-backed securities will again become liquid. My concern is that the answer may well be "not for several years." If the temporary GSE-enhanced limits are rolled back at the end of this year, there will be a lot more jumbo product out there, but its acceptance by investors would have to be tested. Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco unchanged Inflation fears continue to capture headlines as consumer wallets and corporate profits are getting dinged. However, what we are seeing is that as energy and food sap the consumer, money is fleeing stocks and heading to bonds. Inflation typically causes rates to rise, but investors parking money in bonds will keep rates flat. Look for rates to remain range bound, although volatile. Jim Sahnger, Mortgage Consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. unchanged Bankrate's analysts Panel We might be headed toward another credit crunch, with the possibility of higher mortgage rates across the board. Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com up While the dour economic mood rules right now, inflation will reassert as the Fed's key worry, keeping mortgage rates in a range. Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com unchanged

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.