Wondering what the Federal Reserve
means in its rate policy statements?
They're easier to understand
now, in the era of Chairman Ben Bernanke,
than they were when the more-obfuscatory Alan
Greenspan ruled the roost. Nevertheless, a
translation is helpful. The following is what
the Fed said, and what it meant in plain English.
What the Fed said:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided
today to keep its target for the federal funds
rate at 5-1/4 percent.
Translation:
The Federal Reserve's rate-setting Open Market
Committee kept the target federal funds rate
unchanged at 5.25 percent.
What the Fed said:
Recent indicators have been mixed and the
adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing.
Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to
continue to expand at a moderate pace over
coming quarters.
Translation:
Signs about the health of the economy are
pointing in different directions. There are
too many houses on the market for too few
buyers, which causes house prices to fall.
Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to
continue to expand at a moderate pace over
coming quarters.
What the Fed said: Recent readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.
Translation:
Core inflation is the measurement of how rapidly
consumer prices are rising when you exclude
food and energy, where prices tend to yo-yo.
By the Fed's favored measure of inflation,
the personal consumption expenditures price
index, core prices went up 2.2 percent in
2006. The core consumer price index rose 2.7
percent in the 12 months ending in February.
Both measurements are too high for the Fed's
comfort. The central bank wants an inflation
rate between 1 percent and 2 percent. Although
inflation is expected to fall over time, the
low unemployment rate could continue pushing
prices up.
In the Jan. 31 statement, the Fed said, "Readings
on core inflation have improved modestly in
recent months ..." This statement strikes
a tone of greater concern about inflation. |