Mortgage Rate Trend Index
By Bankrate.com

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (Nov. 27 - Dec. 3) the experts say: Rates will fall even more.

Nov. 27 - Dec. 3 This week, a hearty majority of the panelists believe mortgage rates will fall over the next 35 to 45 days. One-quarter think rates will rise, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). Panel: Up: 25% Down: 69% Unchanged: 6%   Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts Experts' comments Panel I can only believe that President-elect (Barack) Obama and his brain trust are providing direction for Fed Chair Bernanke to do what should have been done months ago ... push fixed rates down. Happy days are here again. Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif. down With news that the government will purchase up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities to help stabilize the mortgage market, bonds have soared. With this much needed shot of capital, demand for mortgages should increase significantly and thus drive rates lower. If the immediate reaction is any indication of the near future ... RATES WILL DROP! Ryan Kennelly, mortgage banker, Residential Mortgage Services Inc., Bedford, N.H. down The initial market reaction to the Fed decision has been very favorable, with as much as a half percent reduction in interest rates to homeowners. What remains to be seen is if will it hold up. Over the past few months, many moves have been made by the Fed and none have had much impact past the initial day or two, so it remains to be seen if this will hold up ... but it looks like the market is liking this move right now! Brian Peart, president, Nexus Financial, Atlanta down The 10-year Treasury is trading at 3.09 percent. The announcement early this morning, by the Fed, to buy huge amounts of mortgage-backed securities caused bonds to rally and mortgage rates tumble. The 30 mortgages tumbled 75 basis points to 5.375 percent. The committiment by the Fed today should give the market confidence, strength and keep rates down at least through the end of the year. Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles down Fed intervention had a massive affect on reducing rates this week. However, the last two times the market hit these levels, it reversed higher very quickly. I feel that a sustained refinance market with lower rates is in our future, but market uncertainty makes it very hard to predict when. I see rates rising slightly in the short term. Chris Sipe, senior mortgage consultant, Mason Dixon Funding, Frederick, Md. up Each week we are asked to gauge where rates will be in 35 to 45 days. Most predictions hedge on expectations of economic and market conditions. However, all expectations can be blasted on unexpected events like the Fed's announcement to buy mortgage-backed securities on Tuesday. Expect economic news to continue to falter and combined with increased liquidity rates could fall further. However, each time we have reached these levels, rates don't stay that low for long, so act quick to capture your best rate. Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. down The Federal Reserve announced that it would buy $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities, which will help increase the availability of credit and lower fixed mortgage interest rates. In addition, declining GDP and consumer-confidence numbers point to lower interest rates ahead. We are now approaching the lowest interest rates in several years (with the exception of one small dip last January), so if you're considering buying, building or refinancing, now is an opportune time. David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. down Sustained infusion by the Fed directly into primary capital markets is designed to force banks to lend, as opposed to expecting them to lend and instead having them use cash to pay dividends or as part of share repurchase programs. Bernanke and Paulson (are) being creative in their solutions to proactively create a desired outcome. Each time a new program is created, think of it as fishing with new types of bait. They are waiting to see which bait hooks banks to begin lending again. Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C. down (Rates will move) higher, with increased volatility. Last week we saw an unexpected bump as the incoming admistration announced Tim Geithner as Treasury Secretary. Frayed nerves and a deepened desire for true leadership will continued to sway demand as new TARP proposals unfold. On the flip side, don't discount the government's new ability to "dial in" mortgage rates. Wouldn't be surprised to see rates kept low -- despite market forces -- until slowdown reverses. Dan Dowling, senior mortgage adviser/president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla. up I'm reluctant to vote anymore -- because it's like voting on which way a superball might bounce! If I had to guess where rates would be 45 days from now -- I'd say higher. Bob Walters, chief economist, Quicken Loans/Rock Financial, Livonia, Mich. up The Fed's mortgage-backed bond purchase will offset dismal economic data. Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati unchanged Having the Fed buy $500 billion on FHLMC/FNMA/GNMA debt should cause a one-time drop in rates. The Fed is acquiring the debt without issuing new Treasury debt. They do this by simply giving the sellers credit with the Fed. This increases money supply and should have a 5-fold effect on lending. Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco down Bankrate's analysts Panel The signficance of the Fed's action cannot be overstated. This is reducing mortgage rates in a big way, and is designed to have some staying power. If fixed rates stay in the 5.5 percent neighborhood for months on end, just imagine what that means to homebuyers, home sellers, and anyone considering refinancing out of a fixed rate. The action is long overdue, but most welcome. Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com down We will discover that the Fed intends to keep the 30-year fixed below 6 percent. Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com down

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.