There's one bit of good economic news for drivers this summer: Gas prices are expected to be more than a dollar per gallon lower compared with last summer.

Entering the peak of the driving season, last year the national average price for a gallon of gas was $3.40, and most energy analysts at the time predicted prices would rise throughout the summer. Oil reached $120 a barrel April 28, 2008, eventually climbing to a record high of almost $147 per barrel in July 2008. Even the president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would not rule out the possibility of oil topping $200 a barrel.

Then the global recession arrived.

Today, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge Report, U.S. gasoline prices are now hovering just above $2.25 a gallon, and the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, projects that the nationwide price of gasoline will average a $2.23 a gallon through the end of September. 

"Prices are expected to remain low during the summer driving season because of the global economic slump, which has reduced demand and increased domestic gasoline inventories," says EIA analyst Laurie Falter. On a month-to-month comparison, she says, U.S. gas consumption has remained almost 2 percent lower this year compared with last year. Furthermore, some energy analysts predict energy prices may remain low for years to come.

So, what does all this mean to you? Is this time of affordable gas the right moment to go out and buy that modern-day muscle car or sport utility vehicle you've always dreamed of?  Is this the year to take the family on that road trip across the country? Or is this the perfect time to buy one of the latest-generation, fuel-efficient hybrids that American and Japanese carmakers are bringing to the market?

Blame the economy
"We don't think that the nationwide average price of self-serve regular is going to exceed $2.50 this summer," says Geoff Sundstrom, resident fuel-price analyst and director for public affairs at the AAA. "We are noting with interest the recent run-up in the price of oil and, to a certain extent, the rising price of reformulated gasoline experienced in some areas. However, right now, we're not convinced that current demand can necessarily sustain a $60-per-barrel oil price. In fact, what we're seeing in terms of discretionary driving related to travel is a relatively flat demand situation for gasoline this summer."

One of the untold stories with respect to U.S. gasoline prices, says Sundstrom, is not so much the fact that Americans are not traveling by car the way they used to, but rather that our current gas prices are a reflection of the marked decrease in gasoline demand from commerce.

"People are just not driving out to make sales calls like they used to, they aren't driving a rental car when they are doing business in another city, and they aren't taking the big F-150 pickup to a construction job site. A great deal of the gasoline that is burned in the course of the day is used by business, and that's what we're missing right now," Sundstrom says.

One of the most important factors affecting gas and oil prices is the connection between energy demand and overall economic activity, says Sara Banaszak, senior economist at the American Petroleum Institute, or API. "When an economy is growing, it is using and consuming more and more energy, and it is creating an increased demand for energy resources. Similarly, when an economy experiences an economic decline, such as the one we are experiencing right now, you see energy consumption fall. This current, global economic downturn is the biggest, albeit temporary, factor why we've seen this tremendous drop in terms of energy prices."