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Rates, loans static

By Holden Lewis ·
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Posted: 9 am ET

Mortgage rates were essentially unchanged this week, I explain in this week's mortgage analysis. There's just not a lot of urgency in most local housing markets. Demand for home loans is static, even though the homebuyer tax credits are expiring soon and rates are low.

In this week's Rate Trend Index, a plurality of mortgage experts predict that rates will rise in the coming week.

I predicted that rates will remain relatively unchanged. In the past 52 weeks, my rate prediction has been correct 23 times, for a batting average of .442.

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Holden Lewis
April 23, 2010 at 8:33 am

Each week, the RTI provides the definition of "relatively flat" -- plus or minus 2 basis points.

Rates haven't remained within a 40-basis-point range in the last year. The 30-year fixed averaged 5.95 percent June 10, and 5 percent Nov. 24.

April 22, 2010 at 6:52 pm

It's worse than that. SInce the 30 year rate has been waggling back and forth only about 20 basis points for a year, and "relatively flat" has lots of interpretation to it, and 20 basis points is pretty dang tiny, you might be missing it even more depending on your value of "relatively".

Holden Lewis
April 22, 2010 at 2:50 pm

Well, it is a three-sided coin: up, down, or relatively unchanged. This week I voted unchanged.

But, yeah, I'm not happy with that level of inaccuracy. I understand if you think this disclosure of my accuracy rate undermines my credibility.

April 22, 2010 at 1:40 pm

So you're not doing as well as a coin toss? And you've also been predicting rates to shoot up post-Fed stopping buying mortgage backed securities for many, many weeks now.