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It's a light week on the economic calendar, with the only notable report coming on Friday. That's the report on retail sales in May. According to Briefing.com, the consensus is that the report will say that retail sales (excluding autos) went up 0.1 percent.
Now, that 0.1 percent figure is the consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com. But the website's own experts predict that retail sales excluding autos were down 0.2 percent in May. I think that downward estimate is closer to the mark. This economy feels moribund. Just look at weekend box office figures -- would-be moviegoers are finding something else to do. The only bright spot on the retail scene is the iPad.
If Briefing.com is right, and retail sales except autos fell 0.2 percent in May, there's going to be more talk about a double-dip recession. Mortgage rates won't have much impetus to rise in such an environment.
If mortgage rates move much this week, it most likely will be in reaction to domestic or international surprises.
Besides Friday's report on retail sales, this week's economic calendar includes the release Wednesday afternoon of the Fed's Beige Book, a look at regional economic activity. Friday brings us reports on consumer sentiment and business inventories.
