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Beware the jobs report

By Holden Lewis ·
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Posted: 3 pm ET

The nonfarm payroll report for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. eastern time Friday, and you should consider locking a mortgage rate before then.

According to, the consensus prediction is that the economy grew by a net 148,000 jobs in January. If the nonfarm payrolls number is higher than that, then mortgage rates could go up. If the nonfarm payrolls number is lower, well, I don't know if rates will fall. Rates are low already.

If you're optimistic about the economy, you'll lean toward locking your rate before the jobs report comes out. Today's homebuyers are, almost by definition, bullish on the economy.

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February 03, 2011 at 6:00 pm

Department of Labor: Gender Wage Gap a Myth

by Welmer on March 8, 2010

Every now and then the Federal Government does a decent job of getting to the heart of the matter. Actually, this happens more frequently than one might think. I used to work with a lot of government reports, and I found a number of them to be very professional, objectively written documents. The real problem is that our politicians too often ignore them. In fact, I doubt our politicians read many at all; they probably just have adolescent staffers write little summaries or talking points for them to use in support of one piece of legislation or the other.

Larry Penilla
February 03, 2011 at 5:39 pm

All signs point to a solid gain in jobs. Not good for mortgage rates, but this should already be "baked in the cake." Any surprises are likely to move rates higher or lower.

February 03, 2011 at 5:16 pm

Looking at the price of gold in the last 10 years, it looks like a chart that going to fade lower in the next 12-18 months

the price of gold is an embarrassment to the fiat money mavens ... they cant do much about it because its price reflects the reality of money supply.

the central bank and govt have been pouring new debt into the pipe like crazy ... in 8 months $5T of new debt was created, the previous $5T before that took 100 years to create

now they create $5T in 8 months!

the counterfeir money we call federal rserve notes for the knowing has no crediility, but for the masses they sem to be catching on.

the central bank and central govt have an incestuous affair because they both need each other ... the central govt needs the easy money to fund its initiatives at will without having to increase taxes, and getting appropriations for anything at anytime with a bare majority, easily obtained as most of the politicians are compromised, and a threat of blackmail for a vote works effortlessly

its amazing to think all it takes is 217 yes votes from the house and 51 from the senate, then the signature of one to encumber 300,000,000 ppl with debt they gain no benefit from but have to pay for it all.

although there is no political will to raise rates, the rates are sitting at 0. how long can rates sit at zero before something develops to force a change?

i think the fed knows its money is losing value, and the politics of worthless money = eliminating the fed reserve fiat money system. since the bank and the govt (one unholy union) are desperate to keep their sweet game going, enriching and empowering them but bankrupting the rest of us, if the money has no value, they are in trouble.

thus, to put a little shine on the fed res note rate hikes are necessary, and the smallest excuse to do so will be taken advantage of.

this will take the gloss of gold and other commodities, and pour downward pressure on equities. but the fed must do what it must to preserve its position of power in the world. i cannot tell exactly what the excuse will be, but surely something must be coming to force rate hikes . the gold chart predicts is.