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7 million Obamacare enrollees? Try again

By Crissinda Ponder · Bankrate.com
Tuesday, February 4, 2014
Posted: 4 pm ET

Remember back in May 2013 when the Congressional Budget Office estimated that 7 million Americans would sign up for 2014 coverage through the Affordable Care Act's online exchanges? That was before all those error messages that marked the fumbled rollout of HealthCare.gov.

The agency now says the total number of Americans who will enroll in health insurance for 2014 through the Obamacare marketplaces will be 6 million, according to an updated estimate.

The CBO reduced its original projection by 1 million due to the "significant technical problems that have been encountered in the initial phases of implementing the (Affordable Care Act)," the nonpartisan agency said in its latest analysis.

About more than glitches

A problem-plagued website may not be the only culprit for the revised estimate, says Deborah Chollet, a health insurance research leader at Mathematica Policy Research in Washington, D.C.

"There's always that wild-card variable," she says. "It's not that fewer people have approached the marketplaces, it's just that when they do approach the marketplaces, we're finding there's a relatively high probability that they're Medicaid-eligible." In other words, they sign up for the health insurance program for the poor instead of an exchange plan.

The budget office also projects that the ACA will reduce the number of full-time employees in the U.S. workforce by approximately 2.3 million through the year 2021. That's because Obamacare's tax credits available to lower-income Americans increase as income decreases, which would encourage people to work less. The law's tax credit subsidies lower the cost of insurance purchased through the exchanges.

The GOP pounces

Republicans took the CBO report as an opportunity to drive their argument home that President Barack Obama's signature health reform law is damaging the economy.

"For years, Republicans have said that the president's health care law creates uncertainty for small businesses, hurts take-home pay, and makes it harder to invest in new workers. The middle class is getting squeezed in this economy, and this CBO report confirms that Obamacare is making it worse," House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, says in a statement.

The White House issued a statement Tuesday asserting that the CBO report doesn't take into account several ways Obamacare positively impacts the economy, such as by slowing the growth of health care costs and improving workers' access to health care.

"(The) CBO's findings are not driven by an assumption that ACA will lead employers to eliminate jobs or reduce hours," says Jay Carney, White House press secretary.

Last-minute enrollment blitz likely

Obamacare's March 31 deadline to purchase health insurance is just shy of two months away, and a sign-up surge on the exchanges is expected as the big day nears, Chollet says.

"HealthCare.gov is working quite well," she says. "Some of the states that have had problems are finally getting things to work … and they appear to be enrolling significant numbers of people."

Total exchange enrollment is projected to reach 13 million in 2015 and 22 million in 2016, according to the CBO.

What are your thoughts on the new projections for Obamacare?

Follow me on Twitter @CrissiPonder.

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76 Comments
GFox
April 03, 2014 at 9:24 pm

Obama Care Cheaper???? Per month policy more expensive than the one I liked. Well check-ups covered after I pay my deductible. I hope I don't get sick. It will coast me a fortune to pay the co-pays.

Joe Perry
April 03, 2014 at 12:50 pm

The ACA, while not a perfect document, seems ok for now. As imperfect as it is, in most cases, subscribers are getting better health care at cheaper prices, a young adult can stay on their parent's policy to 26, there are NO pre-conditions and it will save a trillion dollars or more over the next 10 years. An the down side is?

sal
April 02, 2014 at 7:17 pm

time to drone dc

Dave
April 02, 2014 at 7:10 pm

Obama is just like that twerp in North Korea. What he says is supposed to be the truth! ha ha Obama is a LIAR, and so are the numbers. he is a pathetic little community organizer, that's all

sal
April 02, 2014 at 7:04 pm

Maybe the people should fly a drone around Washington dc just in case

sal
April 02, 2014 at 7:01 pm

time to fire this black azz son of a beeotch. You can't force me to buy anything. yeah

sal
April 02, 2014 at 7:01 pm

time to fire this black azz son of a beeotch. You can't force me to buy anything.

Novanglus
April 02, 2014 at 3:59 pm

If your husband is on SSDI he is probably eligible for medicare after 2 years. It is very reasonably priced.

PJ
April 02, 2014 at 11:20 am

I cannot afford to pay all my monthly bills plus the staggering cost of Obama health insurance. I find the cost is actually higher than when I tried in vane to find an individual plan prior to this forced dictated program. Now I understand the IRS will be after me for not enrolling.... can this be true?

MissWayne
April 02, 2014 at 12:44 am

ObamaCare, We can't afford it. I stay home with my disabled husband. His SSDisability (SSD)is 1 week short of us making it month to month. ObamaCare will cost 37% of his SSD. I am part of that 7 million that went to the website to enroll, but couldn't afford to get a plan. I don't believe that number is true for a completed enrollment. I'm sure there are more people like me, at least until we all die off because we couldn't get health care.

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