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Gearing up for employment report

By Greg McBride, CFA · Bankrate.com
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Posted: 1 pm ET

Tomorrow morning is the all-important monthly employment report, to be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Yes, the employment report is still the top gauge of where we stand economically and it will retain its critical importance in that regard.

However, it will carry significance for an additional reason. The monthly employment report could be a catalyst for the next move in long-term interest rates. With global financial markets on edge about Greece and others (Spain, Portugal and Ireland to name a few), investors have gravitated to the safe haven of U.S. Treasury securities. This has helped bring mortgage rates lower.

But should Friday's employment report show a robust number of new jobs (anything above 200,000 would get investors' attention) for April, this will refocus attention among some investors to the continued rebound of the U.S. economy. Mortgage rates would move up a bit in response.

If the employment report disappoints, this only reinforces the angst investors are currently feeling and would push mortgage rates down some more.

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2 Comments
Holden Lewis
May 11, 2010 at 12:06 pm

MHalla, nonfarm payrolls grew by 290,000 in April. The Census added 66,000 positions last month.

Millions of people are on the unemployment rolls, so I'm not sure how you can say they all got Census jobs.

And no one can be forced to take a job. Doing so would violate the 13th Amendment.

Other than getting every single fact wrong, you're right on target.

MHalla
May 11, 2010 at 10:54 am

the jobs indicators are reflecting the forced Census jobs. Each and every person on the unemployment roles were forced into Census jobs. We can not continue to lie to the American public, this 4 month employment report is false and based on temporary Census positions.