Mortgage Rate Trend Index


Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Polyana da CostaPolyana da Costa
Mortgage reporter, 
Global instability, signs of a still-weak economy and concerns of potential retaliation after bin Laden's death have contributed to a flight-to-safety mentality among investors. As demand for safer investments increases, bond yields fall and mortgage interest rates usually follow. That's my logical assumption. Unfortunately, logic doesn't always lead to the correct prediction when it comes to rates, but I think this week I'll get it right.
Greg McBrideGreg McBride
CFA, senior financial analyst,
The direction of mortgage rates will ultimately hinge on Friday's employment report, but concerns about slower economic growth have the safe-haven trade back on, to the benefit of mortgage rates.
Michael BeckerMichael Becker
Mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
Weaker-than-expected job creation numbers from ADP's employment report and a much weaker-than-expected ISM nonmanufacturing survey have lead to a rally in Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds sending their yields lower. If Friday's nonfarm payroll shows weakening in hiring, then I expect the rally in bonds to continue and for mortgage rates to drop slightly. In the coming week, I expect lower mortgage rates.
Dan GreenDan Green
Waterstone Mortgage, author of, Cincinnati
"Greece" is the word. Flight-to-quality edges mortgage rates lower.
Mitch OhlbaumMitch Ohlbaum
Vice president of business development, Mortgage Capital Associates, Los Angeles
The 10-year Treasury is trading at 3.22 percent -- far below what everyone expected in the previous few months. It is now clear to everyone that the recovery is fragile and will bump along for a while. Many traders (nine out of 10 actually) were expecting higher rates and inflation, but I think they have been rerouted. Inflation is up, but not the kind anyone really ever wants -- but especially in a fragile recovery. I am talking about food and energy prices, which are crimping growth potential. Now add jobs and wages, neither of which is growing fast enough to sustain a solid recovery. We should see just a bit more in terms of lower rates.

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