Mortgage Rate Trend Index


Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Greg McBrideGreg McBride
CFA, Senior financial analyst,
A weak economy and fears of deflation still rule the day.
Dan GreenDan Green
Waterstone Mortgage, author of, Cincinnati
An object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force. This week, there's no such force.
Barry HabibBarry Habib
CEO, Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J.
Lower rates ahead on very poor economic data. But the nearby resistance level means we could see some sudden spikes.
Dick LepreDick Lepre
Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
These are the voyages of Treasury yields. Their ongoing mission: to boldly plunge to where no rates have gone before.
As I write this, the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below 2.5 percent. This represents a complete and utter lack of confidence in practically everything. Investors are simply parking their cash in what is safe for fear that the value of everything else might fall.
The problem for mortgage yields is that they are not tracking Treasuries. The excuse is that investors are reticent to buy mortgage paper when yields are falling for fear of early payoffs. What we want is for Treasury yields to stop moving. The problem is that yields are technically very volatile. We need Treasuries to take a Valium.
Mitch OhlbaumMitch Ohlbaum
Vice president of business development, Mortgage Capital Associates, Los Angeles
The 10-year Treasury is trading at 2.5 percent, with inflation at 1.58 percent. Rates will be dragged lower. The Federal Reserve needs to make some quick decisions about what, if anything, it will do with its massive portfolios of securities. Job creation is the only thing that will dig us out of this mess and bring some stability. For now, expect lower rates and possibly more stimulus.

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