Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (April 8 - April 14) the experts say: This week, 38 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so. The rest are split equally among those who think rates will fall, and those who believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
Rate will remain steady over the coming week.
John Walsh, president, Total Mortgage Services, Milford, Conn.
Rates are on the rise.
Bob Moulton, president, Americana Mortgage, Manhasset, N.Y.
Treasury yields (and mortgage rates) moved up consequent to a bad Treasury auction two weeks ago and were compounded by what was actually better-than-expected jobs report. So in the short term, I see flat rates with some increase in volatility induced by the absence of the Fed. In the longer run, the concern I have is about the lack of concern regarding the deficits. We are destroying long-term opportunities for the short-term political gain of giving each customer five quarters for their dollar. The longer we put off addressing fiscal sustainability, the more drastic will be the consequences.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage Inc., San Francisco
The last week was an overreaction. Rates ease lower in the near-term.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
The recent jump in fixed rates and the end of the tax credit program will make housing come to a grinding halt.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
Up, up and away. ...
Brian Peart, president, Nexus Financial, Atlanta
Two weeks ago I predicted that rates would hold steady for the coming week and that once the Fed ended their program of buying mortgage-backed securities, mortgage rates would rise, but only slightly. I have to admit I was wrong on that prediction. In the days after my prediction, the Bankrate overnight average of 30-year fixed mortgages moved from 5 percent to 5.11 percent and in the following week it jumped to 5.25 percent. But I believe the jump in mortgage rates had more to do with the belief in a strengthening economy than the Fed's exit in the MBS market. This is evidenced by the still tight spreads between Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. I still believe the economy faces some strong headwinds and the jump in yields on Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities should attract some buyers which will help bring mortgage rates down a bit. But I do believe the trend in the coming months is for higher rates. Mortgage rates will dip in the coming week, but don't count on them dipping too much. Lock on the dips and get on with your life.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
We've seen rates rise and become more volatile as a result of the Fed withdrawing from their mortgage-backed securities purchase program by 0.25 percent to 0.375 percent over the last week. Continued weak employment, economic news and international unrest should continue to provide some support in the near term. Interest rates still remain very attractive, but we won't be seeing sub-5 percent pricing again.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Investors are still feeling out the waters in the absence of the Fed, and the bond bulls and bears are now engaged in a tug of war. I say unchanged this week following last week's sell-off which brought the increase in rates that have been widely reported. On Wednesday we saw a very favorable auction of 10-year Treasuries which brought an improvement to rates and favorable repricing from lenders. Look for volatility to continue.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
The Fed is maintaining a cautious tone about the economy and interest rates which will help settle mortgage rates after the run-up of the past two weeks.
Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
Mortgage rates will keep doing what they've been doing -- going up.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.