Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (Oct. 1 - Oct. 7) the experts say: Rates will stay about where they are. This week, half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 29 percent think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will rise.
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
Mortgage markets enter a period of wait-and-see. Take your gains and lock 'em in, folks.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati, OH
We have a bullish daily tech and a bullish weekly tech. This could translate into another visit to the lowest mortgage rates we have seen. We have gone down to 4.875 percent no points (conforming, 30-year fixed) on three previous occasions since Dec. 2008. The jobs report on Oct. 2 could add some oxygen to an already volatile market.
Dick Lepre, Senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage - SF, San Francisco, Calif.
Last week, the Fed announced they would continue to buy mortgages. Government actions speak louder than rhetoric. Rates are 4.5 percent now, headed for 4 percent. Borrow now. The money is cheap.
Jeff Lazerson, President, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
It seems more and more people are beginning to question the strength of this recovery. This has put downward pressure on mortgage rates. Over the coming weeks I expect rates to stay low, but to not drop much more. Looking further out you should be aware that the Federal Reserve will be unwinding some of the programs that have supported low mortgage rates and this will cause mortgage rates to rise.
Michael Becker, Mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
I feel rates are lower than where they should be based on the economic data coming out. However, with all the government intervention, it is hard to assess what is real and what is simply riding the wave that will ultimately crest. In times of uncertainty, which this is, people like securities. Couple that with continued government purchases, and rates will remain relatively unchanged.
Chris Sipe, Senior mortgage consultant, Mason Dixon Funding, Frederick, Md.
We've seen rates improve over the past week, and once again approaching 40-year lows. As employment numbers continue to be dismal, expect the stock market to continue to struggle, with bonds (where mortgage pricing comes from) to be the beneficiary of this news. Remember, this is likely to be short-lived, as the government intervention in buying bonds will be easing up and ceasing next year, so don't get complacent about the incredible mortgage interest rates available today. If you're in the market to buy, build or refinance, now is the time to take action. Check with your mortgage adviser on what options exist. If you are a homeowner who has experienced a decline in the value of your home and have little or no equity in your home, don't give up. There are several programs available to allow you to still take advantage of today's very attractive interest rates.
David Kuiper, Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
The job market sucks, small businesses may be reluctant to hire until there is a resolution with the new health care program, banks are sitting on several years worth of REO inventory that they haven't even put on the market, rates are low and the stock market is reacting to the Fed's comments about how challenging it will be for them to pull back.
Mark Madsen, Mortgage Consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas, Nev.
The 10-year is currently at 3.32 percent. While the 10 is down, we did not see much in terms of lower mortgage rates. The FOMC meeting was as expected -- uneventful. The market and real estate news continues to seesaw, which will cause rates to do the same over the next few weeks. Don't expect treasuries or mortgages to go much lower. Lock in those rates.
Mitch Ohlbaum, Loan officer, Bank of America, Los Angeles, Calif.
The Federal Reserve curtails mortgage backed securities purchases (MBS) in the fourth quarter and extends the time for purchasing the remaining allotment through the end of March. Rates should move slightly higher as MBS seek new buyers and new ground.
We have gained some good ground in the last few weeks and people with applications in process should be prudent and lock early in the process.
Jim Sahnger, Mortgage Consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Mortgage rates are flirting with record lows, so expect a slight bounce off the bottom.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Rates took a downward slide this week and I think they'll rise, back to where they were in the previous few weeks.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.