mortgage
Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (Sept. 17 - Sept. 23) the experts say: Rate will stay about the same. This week, well more than half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next 35 to 45 days. One-quarter think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will rise.
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
| Experts' comments | Panel |
While trading in mortgage-backed securities has been very volatile over the last week, rates should continue to trade in a very narrow range. With signs of a slightly improving economy and the pending end of the Fed buying mortgage backed securities, rates are poised to begin rising. Now is an incredible time to lock into near-historic low interest rates whether buying, building or refinancing.
David Kuiper, Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, MI | 
unchanged |
I noted two weeks ago that the daily tech was about to turn bearish (higher rates and yields). I noted last week that it had turned bearish and we would have higher rates. Instead we had lower rates. So we can 1) laugh at me and 2) note that the techs indicate selling and higher Treasury yields and mortgage rates.
Dick Lepre, Senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage - SF, San Francisco, CA | 
up |
Many of the so-called experts are declaring the end of the recession is upon us. They have no clue. In 90 days from now they will be retracting those proclamations. Housing is once again frozen as folks have run out of money to spend.
Jeff Lazerson, President, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, CA | 
down |
Rates drift lower into the start of the holiday shopping season.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati, OH |
down |
I expect rates toward year end to trend higher from where we are currently. Expect rate volatility, though, with some days lower than others. If buying your first home and going for the tax credit, get under contract soon to allow for any issues and still close before Nov. 30.
Jim Sahnger, Mortgage Consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, FL |
up |
Rising unemployment without much being done to create new jobs will keep rates low. However, I'm paying attention to what the Fed and Treasury will do in October to maintain rates.
Mark Madsen, Mortgage Consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas, NV |
unchanged |
Over the last 30 days, yields on Treasuries and mortgage rates are virtually unchanged, yet the S&P 500 has rallied 9 percent. Generally speaking, when stock prices go up so do long term interest rates. I still believe that the run-up in stock prices is a bear market rally and their will be a correction in the near future, but given the fact that rates have stayed low despite the stock market rally I don't expect to see rates drop much when there is a stock selloff. Rates hold steady over the near term.
Michael Becker, Mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, MD |
unchanged |
| Bankrate's analysts | Panel |
Expect the Fed to drop some hints at next week's FOMC meeting about sustaining the mortgage purchases beyond year-end in an effort to keep mortgage rates low.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com |
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The government controls mortgage rates, and the government likes them where they are.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com |
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About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.