Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (Sept. 3 - Sept. 9) the experts say: Rates probably are headed down. This week, half the panelists believe mortgage rates will fall over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 29 percent think rates will rise, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
Inflation fears are overblown. While it is true that the Fed is printing an extraordinary amount of money, that extra money won't cause inflation until it is borrowed (new credit is created). Credit is being destroyed faster than the Fed can print money because consumers have neither the ability nor the inclination to take on additional debt. As these facts become more and more evident, deflationary concerns drive mortgage rates lower. If you missed out on the low rates of earlier this year, get ready, because this fall we may approach the lows in mortgage rates reached earlier this year.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
The economy just can't seem to stabilize regardless of the fact that many experts have declared the recession over. Rates are now nicely under 5 percent but who can qualify? One third of all homeowners are upside down on their mortgages and we have a very understated national unemployment rate in the 9 percent range.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
The daily tech has run its bullish course (higher prices, lower yields) and we should see higher Treasury yields and mortgage rates for 15 to 20 days. We may see a "bouncing along the ceiling" for a week or so as the techs top out and prices stay flat. Presumably that would happen if consequent to erosion in equity prices.
This is not the end because the weekly remains bullish, as we should get another dip when the daily gains its bullish steam in about six weeks.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage - SF, San Francisco
Seasonal trends push mortgage rates down.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
After sounding like a broken record for months now saying that rates would stay the same, we're starting to see some improvement. As the stock market struggles, we're seeing mortgage-backed securities testing new highs, and if they can remain at this level, we'll see improved mortgage interest rates. If you've been unable to refinance due to decreased property values, touch base with your mortgage adviser to see if one of the new 125 percent RefiPlus loans might work for you.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
The 10-year is currently trading at 3.34 percent, which is down 35 basis points from two weeks ago. The inflation component is currently at 1.7 percent, which is also down from almost 2 percent earlier this year. ADP said the private sector lost 298,000 jobs -- 85,000 more than expected. It is now becoming clear to everyone that while things are evening out we are still a long way from real improvement as opposed to lessening bad news. Remember, we need job growth to get this all moving again.
Mitch Ohlbaum, loan officer, Bank of America, Los Angeles
Without notable market news or government intervention this week, consumers may turn to market analysis regarding the future direction of rates. Currently, the average mortgage rate is only 0.05 percent away from the record low of 5.19 percent. However, the high end of that scale is now slightly lower than before, at 5.53 percent. As we appear to have hit a resistance level within those numbers, we can expect rates to move up within that range between now and Sept. 23.
Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C.
Even though rates are very low, I'm cautiously paying attention to how the market will react with the concerns of unemployment. If anything, there is a greater potential for rates to slightly increase from today's average.
Mark Madsen, mortgage consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas
I say unchanged, and one would tend to think that would equate to stability in pricing. I am not saying that. Last year in the month of October, we saw four runs in mortgage-backed securities pricing in excess of 400 basis points, up and down. This translates into rate swings of over 1 percent off the highs and lows. While I am not expecting a repeat, the fact that it happened cannot be lost on consumers that rates can change quickly. Lock when rates make sense and short term, these rates make a lot of sense.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Mortgage rates have pulled back, even as better economic news mounts. Don't wait too long to lock in. The recovery will be weak but the mortgage markets remain very dependent on the Fed's checkbook.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
I expect more of the same -- small changes on a week-to-week basis
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.