mortgage
Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (July 9 - July 15) the experts say: Rates probably won't change much. 19 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 37 percent think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
| Experts' comments | Panel |
Between the poor economic outlook and the Fed's commitment to keep rates low, I anticipate some good news for rates in the near future.
Mark Madsen, mortgage consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas | 
down |
The weekly tech is bullish (higher prices, lower yields) but the daily may be about to top out and reverse to bearish. It is the weekly (that) is best correlated with what we are asked here (forecasting mortgage rates over four to six weeks) so I am going with "lower."
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco |
down |
We expect rates to remain unchanged, staying within the 5.25 percent to 5.6 percent window -- with current levels closer to 5.35 percent. So now is the time for a rate lock. Most forecasts will resist listing the actual rate (because volatility has been so high), but between now and the end of the fiscal year (Sept. 30), expect some of those larger than normal movements to subside. The supply of debt (note and bond) sales in the first half of this year was a whopping $963 billion. President Obama's administration expects to sell $1.1 trillion in the second half -- translated, this will not bode well to keep rates low. For now expect tame rates but long-term higher trend. We are monitoring bid-to-cover ratios and foreign central bank purchases of U.S. debt (indirect bidders) for market color.
Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C. | 
unchanged |
Mortgage markets may sputter along until Labor Day.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati |
unchanged |
With a layer of resistance for the mortgage bonds to improve, and plenty of Treasury auctions ahead, we should see rates increase slightly. However, with the volatility in the market, rates will continue to be a moving target, as we never know when the feds may step in to help out.
Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago | 
up |
We have seen rates improve slightly in recent days. Mortgage bond pricing now continues to ebb and flow with movement in the stock market, especially as we enter earnings reporting season. This is an inverse relationship -- as the stock market improves, mortgage bonds (and mortgage interest rates) worsen and vice versa. We should continue to see mortgage bonds trade in a fairly tight range, translating to mortgage interest rates in the low to mid-5 percent range.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. |
unchanged |
Oil is an excellent barometer of the economy. The price of oil is sliding with the latest economic slowdown. Fixed rates are nicely under 5 percent for the second time this year. This will certainly help to move the million-plus foreclosed properties that the bankers have been sitting on.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif. |
down |
Mortgage rates continue their downward trend. The overindebted U.S. consumer continues to deleverage and increase their savings rate. Reduced consumption by the U.S. consumer is bad for stocks and should lead investors to the safety of U.S. Treasuries reducing their yields. Lower Treasury yields translate into lower mortgage rates. The only caveat is that the increased issuance of U.S. Treasuries to finance the budget deficit will at some point lead to higher rates.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md. |
down |
While I have been in the slightly higher camp, bonds have rebounded nicely since hitting their low point, and now from a technical perspective, bonds seem to be overbought. Look for rates to take a breather for a bit.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. |
unchanged |
Recent reports seem to have misjudged the economic recovery, and we have seen a steadily increasing strength in the mortgage-backed security market. Should this trend continue, we could find ourselves back in the upper 4 percent range on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. I feel this is the case and see rates continuing to slide ever so slightly in the coming weeks, but I wouldn't be greedy.
Chris Sipe, senior mortgage consultant, Mason Dixon Funding, Frederick, Md. |
down |
There is no other alternative to save this country from a complete collapse of property values. The U.S. government is going to make the lenders drop their rates if they want more of the bank bailout money.
Jeff Lazerson, president, mortgage grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif. |
down |
| Bankrate's analysts | Panel |
With the economic glass half-empty, mortgage rates are drifting lower. This represents a great opportunity to lock in but don't hold out for sub-5 percent rates. That train has left the station.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com |
down |
While I would be going too far if I said that mortgage rates have stabilized lately, it does seem that we're within the rate range that the Fed and Treasury wish to see.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com |
unchanged |
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.